Russian Foundations Rocked by Economy

Putin could have continued propping up his Potemkin power vertical and his Potemkin democracy for many more years if the petrodollars kept pouring in. That money was crucial to keep Putin's "circus lions" -- that is, the various elite surrounding him -- well-fed and docile. But now the money is running out, and it is frightening to consider the consequences. It is well-known that even the best-trained circus lions have been known to turn on their trainers unexpectedly, even when they are well-fed. Just think of what could happen if those lions are hungry -- and angry. We have already heard the first menacing roars from Putin's lions. They are gritting their teeth and salivating at the mouth. I am sure that Putin sees and hears all of this. _MoscowTimes_via_LaRussophobe

Russian autocrats were counting on $95 a barrel oil, at the lowest. They were hoping for $150 to $200 a barrel oil, to perpetuate their lavish lifestyles and greedy acquisitions of power and influence. Who are these "circus lions" of Putin, these inner circle autocrats that Putin was hoping to be able to keep happy?

A former KGB officer, Putin has always been close to the "siloviki," the tight-knit clan of security service veterans he brought to power. It includes First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, military procurement chief Viktor Cherkesov, Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov and Federal Antinarcotics Service head Viktor Ivanov.

But Putin has always balanced the power of the siloviki with the technocrats like Medvedev and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and the civilian reformers on their staff. In the boom years, there was enough in the state budget to satisfy everybody. But with the economy now shrinking at an annualized rate of 6 percent and the state budget facing a 42 percent revenue shortfall, the budget has become a political battleground. And the political battle is emerging into the open. _Walker'sWorld

Russia is not like the US, where thousands of people routinely scramble over each other for more power, always aware that after the next election they may be sent home to recover for their next battle. In the US, political losers go home to prepare for better luck next time.

In Russia, the inner circle holds power in a death's grip, understanding that a fall from power may very well mean their lives. Putin has succeeded in bringing something like the atmosphere of the Stalin Kremlin back to Russia. Russian citizens have only fond memories of their autocratic past. It is the way they suppose governments should be run, with an iron fist. Like the abused wife who assumes that her husband doesn't love her unless he is beating her.

Russian men die in their 50s of TB, AIDS, alcoholism, suicide, or just complications of living in Russia. Russian women flee the country to marriages in western Europe, North America, or Oceania -- if they are lucky. Otherwise they stay home, have far more abortions than births, and watch the population of their country shrink as its depleting wealth concentrates in the hands of a few powerful Kremlin men.

Always remember that Russia has enough nuclear weapons to destroy most of the world's cities and industrial centers. Russia's economy depends almost exclusively upon oil, gas, and mineral exports, because Russia's government is hardly more sophisticated than the sheikdoms of the middle east and North Africa. Russia has to drive up the price of oil and gas to save its current government. What do you think Russia will do?