HIV Death Rates Rising in Muslim Countries & Russia

“[Muslim] People are becoming more sexually active with no proper education or awareness,” said Johnny Tohme, a social worker with Marsa, the only Lebanese clinic that offers free HIV testing. Between 1,500 and 3,500 people are living with HIV in Lebanon today, according to figures from Marsa and UNAIDS.

“And with the growth of new infections, if no proper-follow up is administered, the infection is going to spread faster,” he said.

The Arab-wide picture is just as bleak. The Middle East and North Africa maintain just one percent of the world’s HIV caseload, with approximately 300,000 adults and children living with the virus, according to the United Nations.

But the fatality rate for AIDS patients has increased significantly in recent years, while in most of the rest of the world deaths have either stayed the same or dropped. _Global Post

From North Africa to the Middle East to Central Asia, HIV death rates have risen almost 20% across the traditional Muslim homelands.

...two regions saw significant increases – AIDS-related deaths went up by 17 percent in the Middle East and North Africa, and by more than 20 percent across Eastern Europe and Central Asia...

...New HIV cases in Russia:

The public health office says more than 60,000 people tested positive for HIV in the first 10 months of 2012 – up 12.5 percent on the previous year
Almost 2/3 of those who tested positive were male – the overall sickness rate was highest in the 30-40 age group
The mortality rate in this same period grew by 14 percent _Al Jazeera

The New York Times reveals that the problem in the Muslim world has been growing for some time:

AIDS is on the rise in many Muslim countries, driven by men having sex with other men in secret because of homophobia, religious intolerance and fear of being jailed or executed, according to a new study.

...Accurate statistics on some aspects of health are hard to get from governments in some Middle Eastern countries. For example, international health authorities say that the world’s highest rates of birth defects are in Muslim countries where cousins sometimes marry, but that governments are reluctant to admit it. _NYT

The problem of inaccurate statistics may be even worse -- much worse -- in the sub Saharan African countries, which are supposedly experiencing significant drops in HIV incidence and mortality. But the numbers are only as good as the methods used to acquire them, and in nations such as South Africa and Zimbabwe, the public health apparatus has fallen on hard times.

Wall Street Journal

Another important public health problem knocking on the door for both the Muslim world and the more modern region of Europe, is tuberculosis -- TB.

All along the edges of Western Europe, new and hard-to-defeat strains of tuberculosis are gaining a foothold, often moving beyond traditional victims—alcoholics, drug users, HIV patients—and into the wider population. _WSJ

Drug Resistant Tuberculosis in Russia and Surrounding Countries A Growing Problem

Tuberculosis is a very stubborn disease, which ultimately proves fatal to large numbers of people worldwide. In the US, the disease is mainly seen in immigrants from Asia or Latin America. But in Russia, the disease is much more common -- both inside and outside of prison populations. And the degree of drug resistance is becoming very worrisome to international public health monitors.

About 400,000 cases of TB were diagnosed last year in the 15 former Soviet Union states - 40 times the number reported in the United States. Nearly 80,000 of the sick had drug-resistant TB. According to several studies, the prevalence of TB among the region's prisoners is 10 times greater than that of the general population...

..."Tuberculosis doesn't stop at any border or any locked gate," said Goldhaber-Fiebert, a faculty member at Stanford Health Policy, a research center at the university's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

"Drug-resistant TB is rampant in prisons," he said. "When infected prisoners get out, they are thought to drive the TB epidemic in the general population. We are looking to find better ways to deal with that." _HealthNewsDigest

The article above is touting a new and relatively expensive form of DNA screening which uses DNA technology. But in Russia and surrounding countries, the money is not being allocated for proper TB treatment as it is. Why would anyone expect large sums of money to be spent on expensive new screening tests?

The public health system in Russia is slowly collapsing along with the overall health care system. One must pay bribes to receive proper treatment inside Russia for almost any ailment. Those who can do so are as likely to travel to Europe for proper treatment or sophisticated surgeries.

Russia is suffering from demographic shrinkage of ethnic Russians, as well as a serious brain drain to the West. Capital flight is one of many things preventing a prosperous domestic Russian economy from cropping up. Corruption and mafia-style extortion are two other obstacles to a healthy economy in Russia.

You may hear that everything is peachy inside the giant bear. But that would be the skankstream media singing you lullabies. Look deeper -- stratify the statistics by ethnicity. You can almost see the ethnic Russians disappearing from Siberia as you watch, for example.

High rates of tuberculosis, HIV, alcoholism, nicotine addiction, suicide, violent crime, and more, lead to high death rates -- particularly among Russian men. Russian women are having very few children -- and those who can leave the country to start new families with European, Australian, or North American men, will do so.

The Collapse of the Russian Empire

This article was first published on Al Fin blog

Russia is haunted by the history of empire -- an empire that is rapidly slipping the grasp of a bleeding bear. The collapse of Russia's male population is related to alcohol abuse and drug abuse. Russia's politically connected wealthy are stashing tens of $billions in foreign bank accounts, her best and brightest youth vie for overseas jobs, and her beautiful young women seek husbands in Australia, North America, and Europe. Besides oil & gas, Russia's main asset is bluster.

Russian Men and Vodka

The mansions and gardens of old imperial Russia have faded or crumbled, as have many of the collective farms that fed communist Russia. Today, the hamlets dot a forsaken land of rampant poverty where men drink from morning to night. The interconnected crises of low fertility, high death rates and ragged infrastructure have left much of the nation barren.

... Even darker times may lie ahead.

A major study that the United Nations released in April, authored by leading Russian experts, projected that Russia would lose at least 11 million more people by 2025. Another U.N.-sponsored report said last year that the population could fall to as low as 100 million in 2050.

That report cited a recent improvement in fertility but cautioned that, "while these favorable trends may last another five or six years, all recent forecasts . . . predict that Russia's population decline will only intensify."

"There's a risk that in the most negative situation, Russia will stop existing as a state," said Olga Isupova, a senior demographic researcher at the Higher School of Economics, a leading private Russian university in Moscow.

...Russia as a whole lost 12.3 million people from 1992 to 2008. An influx of immigrants, mainly from former Soviet territories, helped hide the extent of the problem. The population is now 142 million, but it would have been 136.3 million without that surge from outside.

...— the decay in the heartland suggests that Russia isn't a resurgent superpower so much as a nation that's trying not to come apart at the seams._NewsTribune

In a worst-case scenario, the population drops from a peak of around 145 million at the turn of the century to about 60 million by 2100, a catastrophic loss of 85 million people at an average rate of 850 000 per year. Unless the government brings in hundreds of millions of foreign migrant workers to compensate, Russia’s productivity and GDP would shrink along with its population.

Strategically, Goldman (2010) points out that a potential problem for Russia is that the depopulation rate in its far east, near the border with China, is higher than the national average. By contrast, the Chinese population on that increasingly sparsely populated border is growing rapidly. Will trouble brew on this border as a result? _Russia's Future

How can Russia help but come apart at the seams? It is only a matter of time before the country no longer has the manpower to hold its vast land area -- particularly when neighboring population overflow has been slipping into Russia for decades, diluting Russia's core population and national spirit.

Despite the rhetorical bluster by Putin and others, critics say that Russia's leadership is largely at fault for not diversifying the economy and helping modernize companies.... During the past decade or so of booming oil and gas exports that brought wealth and prestige, very little was done to revamp a nation still largely stuck in Soviet-era practices. _NewsTribune

On the local level, the problem is poisoning by vodka, drugs, and despair. On the national level, the problem is rampant corruption -- with Russia's heritage being stolen by government officials and their cronies, and shipped overseas.

There is no reason to expect Russia to be any more careful with its huge nuclear arsenal than it has been with any other national assets that might be stolen by insiders and sold to the highest bidder.

With few exceptions, the entire nation is in decay and decline. Expect trouble ahead as a result.

A Global Decline; A US Choice

China's banking system is a mess. And it is not reassuring to foreign observers that China's super-rich are exiting the country in record numbers.

If China continues to scale down its importation of commodities, a large part of the support for inflated oil prices will be removed. Should that happen, the main thing holding up oil prices would be continued fears over a war between Iran and Israel.

But it is more likely that Israel will wait and see what is likely to happen in Syria, before it pulls the trigger on an all-out attack against Iran's nuclear bomb-making facilities. Much of the Arab and Muslim worlds appear to be self-destructing, and no one knows how things will look if the dust finally settles.

Iran is being held together by bubble gum and baling wire, with a bit of duct tape around the edges for appearance' sake. Without the support of Russia and China, the main axis of Islamic terror -- Syria and Iran -- would collapse. Should that happen, dismantling Saudi support for global Islamic terrorism should be relatively easy, using modern tools of information warfare.

But the relationship between Russia and China is beginning to show signs of strain, as China increasingly eyes the resource riches of Eastern Siberia -- while the population of Russia shrinks and Russia's military decays.

Things could go very badly wrong if the leaders of China and Russia react irrationally to the changes in fortune which seem to be approaching for both nations.

Someone needs to tell Putin that Russia is not Stalinist USSR any longer. And someone needs to tell China's leaders that the current state of politico-economic limbo is unsustainable.

Europe is heading into recession. Unless Germany retreats from its insane Energiewende policy, Europe is headed into catastrophe.

And finally, the US faces a choice in November between a chic stasis and a staid dynamism. If the US makes the dynamic choice, the rest of the world is likely to fall in line. If the US chooses stasis, the resulting power vacuum will likely lead to dire global consequences, as already bad choices grow worse.

Russia's Rustbucket Navy; China's Faltering Economy

The only way Mr. Putin can project power is with his navy and perhaps some permanent ports of call.

“Putin would like to do it because right now the navy is the only force that he has to demonstrate Russia is still a world power,” said Norman Polmar, a naval analyst and author of several books about the Russian navy.

“He can’t send the army anywhere. He can’t send his airplanes anywhere without over-flight rights, and people don’t like to let military planes fly over their countries.”

...the Russian navy “is in very poor shape because of finances.”

“It has very few ships that are operational. Very few submarines that are operational. Everything is behind schedule, all of their new construction. The country was for several years essentially bankrupt after the fall of the Soviet Union. The shipyards fell into disrepair. All of the services fell into disrepair,” Mr. Polmar added.

Mr. Russell said the problem is worsened by corruption. Money meant for the government is siphoned off by organized crime.

“The country’s balance sheet looks good right now because it has lots of oil and natural gas, but the profit from this bonanza is being looted by the organized crime-apparatchik kleptocracy that is ruling the country,” he said.

“Much of the money is just being stolen and not being invested in the people and the state. If it didn’t have nuclear weapons, why would anyone take Russia seriously today, except in a negative sense?” _WT

So much for Russia's ability to project conventional power around the globe.

As for China, much of its international clout is based upon its image as an economic juggernaut. But is such an image just a bit out-dated?

Industrial output growth is decelerating , and perhaps more quickly than the government data suggests. _WSJ

Pay particular attention to the graphs in the WSJ piece above.

China's global power play will come to nought if its economic infrastructure collapses like many of its buildings, bridges, tunnels, towers, and other constructs.

Both China and Russia are struggling with out of control corruption at all levels of government -- and no one can guarantee that either nation's government will win their respective battle.

To top it off, although both nations would like to project an image of close cooperation and allied goals, in the long run the two countries are on a collision course. And it is likely that China will be the last man standing, of the two.

Russia's Death Agony

In the article excerpted below, Alina Smyslova takes an agonising look at the death struggles of her mother Russia.

...unless the Russian government begins to address the factors causing the population decline, Kremlin’s economic goals will not only become unachievable but will experience a setback, and the country’s role as a key player in the world will diminish.

One of the biggest causes of the decline in population is the shift in family dynamics away from marriage, and the corresponding decrease in child birth. Russia is experiencing a revolution in family values with a significant decrease in the number of couples choosing to get married, and a significant increase in divorce. Since the 1990s, more women have opted for cohabitation before marriage, and often forgone marriage altogether.[3]

In addition to the decline in marriage rates, there is a significant decline in women choosing to have children. The lack of financial security is forcing many Russian women to choose abortion instead of motherhood. Andrei Akopyan, the head doctor at a Moscow reproduction and family planning clinic, predicts that the number of abortions will increase by approximately 11%, which he attributes to current economic woes. In fact, based on results from the Russian Public Opinion Research Center, VCIOM, only 5% of women polled in November 2008 are planning to become pregnant in the next two years.[4] The numbers become even more desperate when considering the rising number of unhealthy babies being born. Only 30% of children born in Russia are healthy; 50% of newborns lack either iodine or calcium, the leading causes of brittle bones and mental retardation;[5] seven in every ten newborns suffer from some kind of disorder; and one in twelve babies is born underweight.[6]

Those women who do choose to give birth face many risks, from losing a job to dying in childbirth. According to the World Health Organization, a Russian woman is six times more likely to die in childbirth than a German woman.[7] Combined with the high chance of giving birth to an unhealthy child and the unstable finances of the majority of the population, it is no wonder the birth rate has decreased.

The crisis only worsens as the death rate (16.06 per one thousand) continues to outnumber the birth rate (11.03 per one thousand). One of the dominant and rising killers is the HIV/AIDS virus. According to 2007 estimates, approximately 940,000 Russian citizens, or 1.1% of the population, are living with HIV/AIDS and the number is increasing exponentially. [8] Most unfortunate, 80% of the population that will die from the disease will be between 25 and 39 years of age—the prime age for family formation and labor production.[9] In addition, Russia is facing a quickly increasing rise in tuberculosis cases, which nearly quadrupled in the 15-to-17-year-old age group between 1989 and 2002.[10] The death rate from cardiovascular disease is four times, and the death rate from accidents, injuries, homicides, suicides, and other “external causes,” is five times higher than that of the European Union. [11]

Majority of these health problems and deaths are linked to the biggest problem facing Russia today: alcoholism. Alcoholism or alcohol dependency is a significant factor in two-thirds of deaths for men under the age of 55, given the life expectancy for Russian men is about 61.5 years. Russian women fare slightly better with a life expectancy of 73.9 years.[12] The Russian government is almost blissfully unaware of the health crisis afflicting its citizens; does not have accurate data on the number of people suffering from the major diseases; and is doing very little to curb this horrifying death trend. _My Dying Mother Russia

Full article PDF download (click for download manager)

H/T Mercatornet

We hear a lot of happy talk about how Russia has turned the corner on its demographic decline. But what has actually happened is that muslim immigrants are flowing into the country so rapidly that they are skewing the overall population statistics. If the numbers are stratified by ethnicity, the sad truth of the ongoing decline of Russia's core population would be clear.

Bonus: Putinism Under Siege: A collection of articles from Journal of Democracy

Flogging Round the World

The economies of the globe are receiving a flogging, one by one. Under Obama, the largest economy, the USA's, cannot even rescue itself, much less help the large numbers of other nations beginning to drown under debt, demographic decline, and green faux environmentally motivated energy suicide.

The United States, by far the world's biggest economy, has long pulled the global economy out of slumps. Now it needs help. Three years after the Great Recession officially ended, the American economy can't maintain momentum. For the third straight year, growth has stalled at mid-year after getting off to a promising start. _Bloomberg

Europe's populations are beginning to show the signs of low birthrates among core populations. The problem of insufficient young people to support the growing numbers of old people is adding to the continent's problems.

Europe's obstacles are even more severe. It's faced with crushing government debts, struggling banks and scant economic growth. Unemployment in the 17 countries that use the euro is 11 percent, the highest since the euro was adopted in 1999.

Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain are in recessions. Germany and France are faring better, but both are likely to grow more slowly this year than America. _Bloomberg

As for China, we have seen over the past weeks and months that China is not immune from the economic problems of Europe and the US.

Chinese growth has decelerated for eight straight quarters. That's the longest slowdown in records dating to 1992, according to Yu Bin, a government researcher.

China is also feeling Europe's economic squeeze. Chinese exports to Italy dropped 24 percent in June from a year earlier. Exports to France fell 5 percent, those to Germany nearly 4 percent. Europe buys about 17 percent of China's exports. The impact of weak European demand for Chinese-made furniture, shoes, toys and other goods has fallen hardest on export-oriented manufacturers along China's southeastern coast. Some companies have closed. Others are cutting staff. _Bloomberg

From China, the problems flow downhill to Brazil, and to India. Brazil's government and people have been betting that the good times would never end, and the time to pay the piper is approaching.

"The current pace of credit growth in Brazil remains unsustainable — and the longer it continues, the bigger the risk of a messy ending further down the line," Capital Economics warned.

Similarly, the outlook has dimmed for India, the world's fourth-biggest economy. Its growth slowed to a 5.3 percent annual rate in the first three months of 2012, the slowest rate in nine years. _Bloomberg

Russia has its share of problems from rampant corruption and capital flight to widespread drug and alcohol abuse, and suicide. Still, some Russians see the country's source of economic support -- its energy wealth -- as the equivalent of Russia having won the lottery:

Lottery winners find it psychologically hard to accept that their winning is a completely random event. They tend to see it as their "achievement," the result of them being special or chosen by providence. Remarkably, this is also the case with Russia, where the government ascribes the country's relative economic prosperity not to the inflow of petrodollars — and the luck from an extended period of high global oil prices — but to its supposedly wise, prudent economic policies. Ordinary Russians similarly see the wealth that is flowing into their country as somehow the result of their hard work, not circumstances beyond their control.

Winners' greatest victims, however, are their own children. Very rarely are the lottery winnings used to ensure good education for winners' kids. Many end up spoiled, morally corrupt and traumatized by their parents' good fortune. This could be seen as a metaphor for Russia's lack of investment in its future. Russia has done little to wean its economy from oil or revive the education and research infrastructure that existed in the Soviet Union. Most alarmingly, lottery money usually ends up as an easy-come-easy-go fortune. Even enormous jackpots have been squandered completely. It is a cautionary tale for Russia, which could end up back in the indigent 1990s if oil prices fall. _MoscowTimes

The Earth's national economies are being generally flogged round the world, and even the winners too often end up losers.

Demographic Collapse in Russia Threatens Pensions

The collapse in the birth rate after the breakup of the Soviet Union two decades ago will cause Russia's labor force to shrink 11 million by 2030, while the number of pensioners will grow by 9 million. _MoscowTimes

Perhaps the silver lining of Russia's pension problem is that Russian men do not often live long enough to enjoy their pensions. High death rates from heart disease, alcoholism, suicide, tuberculosis, crime, accidents, and smoking related diseases allow only a few old Russian men to live long enough to complain about their pensions.

One solution involves increasing the time Russians would have to work to receive a full pension. The Social Development Ministry proposes boosting this period to 40-45 years, up from just five years at present.

In one of his first decrees as the new president, Putin has called for a mechanism that rewards pensioners who work beyond the official retirement age.

"It is a hidden hike in the pension age, but they don't want to do this openly," said Julia Tsepliaeva, chief economist at BNP Paribas in Moscow.

To save money, the plan would also have to penalize Russians who still retire at 55 or 60. It's far from clear that Putin has the political stomach for such an unpopular step.

. "Unfortunately, people don't realize that they are paying for pensions themselves," said Gurvich. "They have paternalistic thinking and think that the government pays. So they don't like the idea of working longer." _MoscowTimes

Somehow I doubt that Putin -- or any Russian politician or official -- can get away with raising work requirements for a pension from just 5 years all the way up to 40-45 years.

With the average life expectancy for Russian men barely at or above 60 years, most men will not be healthy enough to work that long, and many will not survive that long -- work or no work.

As the numbers of ethnic Russians inside the country continues to shrink -- and the numbers of non-Russians inside Russia continues to grow -- there will be the further problem of conflict between the non-Russian workers who may not wish to pay high taxes to support ethnic Russian pensioners.

Of course, that conflict can arise in any country where demographic replacement -- due to differential birthrates and immigration -- is taking place.

Global Economy at the Crossroads

China may be on the brink of instability and large scale capital flight

If this dire prediction should come to pass, the repercussions across global markets -- both emerging and developed -- would be severe.

The global drop in oil prices is having a depressing effect on Russian markets and the ruble

Putin's inability to sell high priced Russian natural gas to China is likely to further hurt the wounded bear

Things are bad all over, with people beginning to remark on an exodus of cash from China

A growing problem of capital flight from Russia etc.

Even Europe is beginning to feel the sting of capital flight -- and not just Greece and Spain

Unless the US can get rid of Obama and his ruinous administration of economic saboteurs, and unless the UK and Australia can get rid of their energy starvationist politicians and bureaucrats, even the Anglosphere may be in for some very hard times.

Mainland Europe needs to reverse its demographic decline and enact some crucial pro-energy policies, before it suffers a terminal green dieoff.

It is possible for entire societies to commit suicide. Try not to let it happen to yours.

Russia Haunted by Tens of Thousands of Ghost Villages

Despite abundant happy talk and spin claiming that Russia has turned the corner on its demographic collapse, the facts on the ground tell a starkly different tale.

The discrepancy in life expectancy between Russian men and women has created a gender imbalance that can be seen most acutely in the country's "ghost villages".

Russia has tens of thousands of 'ghost villages' with populations of less than 10 people. Tens of thousands of such villages, whose populations can be counted in handfuls, are dotted across Russia, particularly in the west of the country.

While the exodus of the rural population to cities since the collapse of the Soviet Union has contributed to the trend, the premature deaths of many men has left some villages populated solely by elderly women. _Source

The public health disaster that is modern Russia, is not likely to improve no matter who is president or prime minister. Rates of adult smoking, drinking, suicide, and other risky behaviours are simply too high -- reflecting a palpable despair and nihilistic atmosphere choking the lungs.

Adding to Russia's demographic problems, many skilled Russians are also leaving the country in search of better and higher paid jobs.

A survey in 2011 by the Levada Centre, an independent, non-governmental polling and sociological research organisation, revealed that half of Russians did not think there was a future for them in the country, while 63 per cent said they would like their children to live abroad.

...Speaking to Russians in Moscow, citizens seemed both aware and concerned about the problem.

Aleksei, 33, an opera singer from Perm, said: "I think that the demographic situation in Russia is very bad. There is a lot of dying, and few are born."

While the population decline is mainly among ethnic Russians, other mainly majority-Muslim populations such as Chechens, Ingush and Dagestanis are seeing a rapid increase.

Marina, 43, an accountant from Moscow, said: "The number of Slavs [ethnic Russians] has become much smaller, it is very noticeable; even without considering such large central cities as Moscow and St Petersburg."

...The entire eastern third of Russia has a population of less than 10 million people, while the Chinese provinces immediately on Russia’s border have a combined population of more than 120 million.

Last month, the Russian government announced that it would spend $993bn on the development of Eastern Siberia and Far Eastern regions.

The programme outlines various preferences for citizens willing to move to Russia’s sparsely populated eastern territories, but similar schemes have made little difference in the past.

...If present trends continue, experts say that Russia's population will drop from 143 million to 107 million by 2050.

That problem is a major talking point in the country’s upcoming presidential election, due on March 4, with all the candidates offering various policies to tackle the issue.

Vladimir Putin, who is running for a third term as president, has described the decline as "the most acute problem of contemporary Russia" and last month declared that the country faced becoming a "a geopolitical void” if the trend was not reversed. _Source

Russia Must Drive World Oil Prices Above $150 to $200 /Barrel

“For Putin to have serious room for manoeuvre, he needs to have oil at $150 or $200 per barrel. What we have now is not enough,” says Vladimir Milov, former deputy energy minister and these days an opposition leader.

...Mikhail Dmitriev, head of the Center for Strategic Research, a government-connected think-tank, [adds] that much depends on oil prices. “At prices below $80 per barrel, this system would receive a blow from which it could not survive.” _FinancialTimes

The only thing that makes such statements true is Vladimir Putin's ambition to build Russia into a USSR-sized world super-power. He would require massive injections of capital into Russia's military and technological infrastructures -- and even then, he would come up short. But he has to try.

As noted here previously, Putin's Russia is willing to do almost anything in order for the regime to survive -- including helping Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, and pushing the middle east into all out war.

Putin's hold on power is not absolute. It rests upon several factors:

So what secures Putin’s political power, and how strong is it actually? Briefly, the social contract which Putin has with Russia stands on two pillars: material well-being and stability. More specifically, the following factors have helped the KGB and Putin come to power and hold it.

Disillusionment with democracy and the free market as Russians saw it in the 1990s.
Fear of lawlessness and striving for law and order.
The old habits of living in a deterministic society, particularly on the part of the older generation.
The high price of oil and natural resources, which allows for a comparatively decent standard of living without unleashing the forces of creativity and free enterprise.
The social systems and infrastructures, though shabby and deteriorating, inherited from Communism: cheap medicine, education, apartments, etc., which allowed the government to save on those expenses for some period of time.
Post Communism credit–a substantial increase in production and the standard of living in comparison with the utmost inefficient central planning economy.

One can see that most of these factors are of a temporary nature: people’s memories are fading, the older generation is dying off, and the price of natural resources can fall at any moment, Any of these developments will weaken or undermine Putin’s authority or force him to drastic reforms, which would dramatically decrease his and the FSB’s power–or even oust them.
There are many signs that the Putin regime has never been very strong. It failed to create in Russia a modern competitive economy; it has mixed results at best in its attempt to impose control over the former Soviet republics; and it is losing continuously the most creative and entrepreneurial segments of the population to the West.

There are also signs that indicate that Russia’s ruling elite is not so confident in the strength and longevity of its position. Russia’s rulers try to extort as much money as they can and put it in foreign banks, keep their families abroad, establish foreign residence and even citizenship, and try to maintain good personal relations with influential Western friends. All that looks like the right escape route. _Yuri Yarim-Agaev Frontpagemag

World oil demand has risen fairly steadily over the past 25 years, but if one breaks the demand down into two components: advanced world demand and emerging world demand, it is clear that all of the increase in demand is coming from the emerging world. How much longer -- in the light of economic difficulties in Europe, Obama's US, and China -- will this meteoric rise in third world demand continue?

Image Source
Crude oil and gas are both being discovered in significant quantities from China to Africa to the North Sea to the Gulf of Mexico. North American tight gas and oil production continues to rise, and the tight gas & oil contagion is spreading to South America, China, Europe, and the Levant. All of this at the same time that the advanced world -- Europe and the Anglosphere -- are reducing per capita demand for oil & gas.

In addition, new technologies are making conversion of gas, coal, bitumens, kerogens, and biomass to liquid fuels and chemicals, more efficient and economical.

Putin cannot stop these developments. He can only hope that after the world settles down from all the mayhem he has stimulated, there are still Russia and Russians remaining. There is no guarantee of that, regardless of what Putin does.

Russia's War on Global Oil Markets

Russia has intentionally maneuvered Iran to the brink of war over its nuclear reactor program, in order to help raise global oil prices. With Russia's unflagging assistance, Iran is processing its uranium ore so as to produce highly enriched uranium. The most likely indications are that Iran will have enough enriched uranium to build fission bombs in the near future -- again, with Russia's assistance.

Russia is the main beneficiary of the run-up to war and oil market instability -- its oil profits are keeping its corrupt government afloat. China is a secondary beneficiary, able to buy Iranian oil at a significant markdown. The Iranian people are the big losers, sinking into poverty, drug addiction, and despair.

Russia is now the world's largest oil producer, pumping about 10 million barrels of oil a day, slightly more than Saudi Arabia. Of this, Russia exports seven million barrels a day... The Russian oil industry was already reaping the rewards of higher global oil prices from Iranian tensions, even before Tehran raised the stakes Wednesday by threatening to cut off oil to six European nations.

Now, whether Iran carries out that threat immediately or Europe proceeds with its previously planned embargo of Iranian oil this summer, the Russian industry could capitalise more directly. Its pipelines stand ready to serve customers willing to pay a premium price — with a grade of oil closely resembling Iran's._NYTimes News Service _ via TheHindu

Clearly, given their growing capability to produce and deliver oil wherever the market dictates, and the tie between the price of oil and price of gas in Russian supply contracts, it is in the clear interest of the Russians to push up the price of Brent crude. Therefore, could it be that the tumult around deliveries of Iranian oil is merely a smokescreen to escalate prices, and that some thing far more nefarious is taking place? _Learsy_HuffPost

Russia is having problems with its own ineptitude and corruption. It is also troubled by the threat of the coming global shale oil & gas boom. Other competitive pressures likely to arise in the near future include massive supplies of unconventional liquid fuels from GTL, CTL, BTL, bitumens, kerogens -- all eventually facilitated by high quality nuclear process heat.

It is clear that Russia had to take matters into its own hands in order to drive up oil prices -- one way or another.

As the NYTimes reported, "The Russian oil industry was already reaping the rewards of higher oil prices from Iranian tensions." The Russians have been cashing in brilliantly while rendering support to Iran by such acts as vetoing or emasculating any and all meaningful U.N. resolutions that would force Iran to comply with the terms of the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency mandates. It is an open question whether this is being done in solidarity with Iran, or more malignly, to solidify Iranian intransigence on matters nuclear, in the hope that the European and other world consumers' boycott of Iranian oil has maximum impact, making Russian oil more sale-able at ever higher prices. _Learsy

Meanwhile, Russia is seeking the help of the international oil companies to upgrade its oil production and refining procedures and operations. Given how Russia has behaved toward international oilcos in the past after having received help and technology transfer, it is difficult to see how this turns out well for either western oil companies or western countries in general.

At the same time that Russia is ramping up international tensions over Iran in order to pull in greater oil profits, it is also looking for the world's sympathy by claiming that Russian oil fields are declining rapidly, to the point that Russia's oil production "has peaked" and in danger of rapid decline.

Yes, certainly we should all feel sorry for Russia, the nation that is enabling nuclear proliferation in Iran and driving the world to the brink of war -- all for oil profits that will go into the Swiss bank accounts of Russian oligarchs, insiders, and quasi-dictators. The nation that lets its oil fields go to crap out of neglect, asks western corporations for help, then abruptly nationalises any resources, technologies, and assets which the outsiders naively leave within the kleptocratic reaches of the Russian government.

Russia's energy reserves remain vast, deep, and wide -- and largely unexplored and undiscovered. In the hands of competent organisations, Russia's hydrocarbon production would not peak for several more decades. But pay no attention to reality -- heed only what you are told by your masters.

Raymond J. Learsy thinks that Russia is manipulating global oil markets to the detriment of all of Europe:

So here we have Russia, a major supplier of oil and gas with an economy deeply dependent on the revenues received from the sale of those commodities. According to the NYTimes article, "And the taxes the Russian government has received from those sales have been a political windfall for Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin as he campaigns to return as Russia's president. The extra money has helped further subsidize domestic energy consumption, tamping down inflation." Combine this with a Russia that is in large measure governed by that unique version of our Wall Street "ole boys network," the alumni of Russia's highly touted secret service, the KGB. The KGB helped form Putin and many of his associates in government. Here was an organization that was the nonpareil masters of clandestine intrigue, knows how to keep secrets, and now in a sense, is running the country albeit with the trappings of democratic governance.

Fast forward-only this week, "a group of brokers and traders successfully managed to manipulate an interest rate that affects loans around the world" (Please see "Traders Manipulated Key Rate, Bank Says," Wall Street Journal). If this could happen to interest rates, so widely traded throughout the world, just think what a KGB oriented Russia could do, and not with $6,500 at their disposal, but billions upon billions. It should not be a stunning surprise to those, be they government agencies, the press, or energy focused think tanks, that the traded price of Brent crude is being gamed. _Learsy

That would be an interesting "one-two!" play by the Russians, if we believe that they are so clever and manipulative. First ramp up international tensions over Iran, then behind-the-scenes, use a bit of leverage to shift global markets to their advantage.

We know the Russian government needs every bit of hard currency it can get, to keep its people happy, and to keep powerful insiders well compensated. But the price being paid by the Iranian people is severe, and has no apparent end-point.

Needless to say, the strategy is not guaranteed to work to the satisfaction of top Russian players, indefinitely. A lot of things could go wrong....

Meanwhile, behind the scenes in Russia, a demographic, infrastructural, and public health disaster continues to play itself out, below the happy Potemkin facade. Putin has a grand strategy, but it is built on a foundation that is slowly crumbling.

Parts of the above were cross-posted from articles previously published at Al Fin Energy.

Meanwhile, contrast the lucrative game of realpolitik being played by Russia, with the ham-handed, self-destructive voodoo environomics being practised by the Obama administration, to the detriment of North Americans everywhere.

Previously published on Al Fin blog

Will Putin Be the Next Qadafi?

In the run-up to the 2000 elections, the totally unknown Vladimir Putin engineered the Chechen crisis in order to convince Russians that he could save them from the chaos and war. In 2004, he managed to make Russians believe that the choice they faced was between him and the oligarchs. Khodorkovsky was thrown in jail and the majority of Russians preferred to believe that their president had finally broken the chain connecting him to Yeltsin's self-enriching circle. In 2008, contrary to expectations, he decided not to run for a third term, thus promising substantial changes in the framework of existing power. In all three cases, in other words, presidential elections were framed by a dramatic and easily comprehensible public narrative.

In 2012, by contrast, Putin has no story to tell. It is completely unclear in what way public interest could possibly be served by his returning to the Kremlin. He is not coming back to handle the Chechens, because they are now allegedly his most loyal supporters: United Russia won an eye-popping 98 per cent of the vote in Kadyrov's fiefdom. Nor is Putin coming back to save the Russians from the oligarchs, because the new oligarchs are his old St. Petersburg buddies. All those who had hoped that the regime could be modernized under a younger president feel humiliated by their own embarrassing naivety. In 2012, Putin has not only lost his image as someone who can solve crises: he is no longer able to create new crises which he can triumphantly resolve because, at this point, any crisis that emerges will be blamed on him. The only thing Putin can tell those who ask why he wants to return to the Kremlin is that he has nowhere else to go. (That he needs to stay in power to protect his "business interests", while widely assumed, is obviously not a tale for public consumption.)

Putin is now facing a dilemma similar to the one Gorbachev faced in the last two years of the Soviet Union. Genuinely competitive elections, assuming that he won them, might possibly rescue his collapsing legitimacy. But winning an election that he might have lost [In other words, being caught cheating in an election __ ed.] would not be the end of Putin's troubles. Afterwards, he would start to be held publicly responsible for his actions. The media would freely report on his business associates and the opposition would be constantly after him, pointing out all the promises he failed to keep. This means that he would perhaps keep power temporarily but that eventually he would lose. Shooting at protesters is an even less attractive option, even if it were feasible. In 1993, true enough, Yeltsin shelled the parliament; but back then Russian society was ideologically divided and the most radical democrats supported Yeltsin's decision to shoot. The West was also behind Yeltsin. Today, Putin can reasonably fear that shooting at relatively affluent urban crowds might land him where Gaddafi ended up. History shows that only politicians with a strong social support base – rooted in ideology, religion, or kinship – dare shoot at protesters. _Eurozine

Vladimir Putin may well be the wealthiest man in the world. He made his billions in the same way any number of dictators and quasi-dictators around the world -- he stole them. Just like his friends, the neo-oligarchs, Putin has a deft set of hands in the public cookie jar.

But that is how Russia and the third world have always done business. The big strong man and his friends get the first chance at the booty. Next come the elite and connected who are just outside the first circle. Then comes everyone else.

It worked well for Qadafi, Mubarak, Idi Amin, and a long line of dictators -- until it didn't work any longer. In the third world, dictators are generally replaced by other dictators of one stripe or another. US President GW Bush tried to replace a dictatorship in Iraq with a democratically elected government, and it is unlikely the country will ever completely recover. Of course, Iraq was never anything to write home about in the first place. But the tripartite country in perpetual turmoil should be a caution to other would be external democratisers -- in Arab countries or in Russia.

Russia, Iran, and Venezuela all Suffer from Underinvestment in Oil Fields

National oil companies in Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Mexico, Bolivia etc. are beginning to reap what they have sown. Their oil & gas infrastructures are beginning to show the wear and decline of underinvestment. The governments of these countries all seized many billions of dollars worth of assets from private multi-national oilcos that had developed difficult oil & gas fields, then allowed the seized assets to decline from lack of maintenance and upkeep.

Is it any surprise that foreign investors are reluctant to go back into these treacherous countries to help bring their petroleum infrastructures back up to basic standards?

Venezuela's oil industry is hampered by a lack of foreign investment, and the country will be keen to see prices high this year while output can be maintained....Iran finds it more difficult to get access to modern technology to rejuvenate its ailing production infrastructure, output is forecast to drop. The International Energy Agency says Iran's oil production could be cut by as much as 890,000 bpd to just under 3 million bpd by 2016...Russia's economy would suffer greatly from a meltdown of the European economy, losing out on both exports and investment flows. This would exacerbate a potential revenue loss from oil production, which could go into decline if investment is not stepped up sufficiently, says the International Energy Agency (IEA). _National

Oil dictatorships in Asia, MENA, SS Africa, and Latin America, are little better than organised criminal gangs -- which do not hesitate to seize valuable assets of any foreigners trusting enough to invest inside their countries.

If the energy starvationist regime of US President Obama is ever removed from office, far more North American energy assets should become available for development. Significant opportunities for multi-national oilcos would then open up in the Arctic, offshore in multiple US continental shelf areas, in coal resources, bitumen resources, kerogen resources, and eventually methane hydrate resources.

Getting rid of Obama should also allow the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to begin licensing safe new reactor designs. This would benefit the hydrocarbon markets in multiple ways besides the reliable provision of electrical power -- prolonging supplies of gas and coal for many decades. One of the most fascinating impacts on hydrocarbon markets by advanced nuclear power would be the use of nuclear process heat to develop several trillion barrels of oil equivalent liquids from coal, gas, bitumens, kerogens, methane hydrates, and biomass. That is nothing to sneeze at.

While Russia continues to bang its head against the wall trying to develop rich Arctic reserves in the face of a global cooling trend and increased Arctic sea ice, the countries of North America, Oceania, and Europe could be developing alternative and unconventional sources of liquid fuels at a price below today's inflated oil prices.

Russia is the Birthplace of Modern Terrorism

Russia is the birthplace of modern terrorism. The Russian nihilists of the 19th century combined political powerlessness with a propensity for gruesome violence, but their attacks were aimed at the Tsarist state and ruling classes. Later, the Soviet Union and its allies actively supported terrorism as a means to politically inconvenience and undermine its opponents. The East German Stasi and the KGB provided funds, equipment, and "networking" opportunities to the myriad of leftist German terrorist cells in the 1960s, 70s and 80s. The Red Army Faction and the 2nd June Movement in Germany, as well as the Red Brigades in Italy, shared Marxist philosophies, a hatred of America, solidarity with the Palestinians, and opposition to the generation, some of its members still in power, that had supported the Nazis and fascists. They were good foundations for a Cold War fifth column. It was not just Europe, either: Soviet equipment, funding, training and guidance flowed across the globe, either directly from the KGB or through the agencies of key allies, like the Rumanian Securitate, the Cuban General Intelligence Directorate.

Palestinian groups were enthusiastic participants in Soviet terror largesse. General Alexander Sakharovsky, head of the KGB's First Chief Directorate, famously said in 1971, "Airplane hijacking is my own invention," referring to the Palestinian Liberation Organization's hijackings. In the 1950s and 60s there was, on average, five hijackings a year; in 1969, Palestinian terrorists hijacked 82 aircraft. George Habash's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine was crucial. The secular, left-wing Habash boasted, "Killing one Jew far away from the field of battle is more effective than killing a hundred Jews on the field of battle, because it attracts more attention."

When the Soviet Union ended, so did much of the secular, left-wing terrorism it had sponsored. Logistical support, funding, and advice all stopped. But, just as importantly, the intellectual, spiritual, and philosophical engine of leftist terror had become broken and powerless. Communism did not work; liberal democracy and capitalism had won. Marxism lost its inspirational impact without a superpower cheerleader and benefactor. The potential terrorists were no longer motivated by Marxism and, crucially, neither were their supporters.

Terrorism has always been about more than the terrorists themselves. The perpetrators need a motivating ideology to justify their crimes, as well as committed enablers around them. The enablers themselves require a broader base of political supporters and advocates -- "the useful idiots" (an expression credited to Lenin). In the early 1970s, one poll reported that a tenth of Germans under the age of 40 said they would shelter members of terrorist group Baader-Meinhof; a quarter expressed their broad support, even after Baader-Meinhof had murdered over 30 people, including police officers, newspaper workers, and businessmen. With the fall of the Soviet Union and the collapse of communism, extreme leftism lost its inspiration and the terrorists lost their support. Baader-Meinhof announced its own disbandment in 1998, five years after its last terrorist attack and seven years after the Soviet Union disbanded. _Atlantic

And then Muslim terrorism rose up to fill the gap left by the suspension of leftist terrorism. But the idea behind leftist terrorism has not actually gone away. In the west, the erstwhile left-terror enablers have taken over much of the establishment and are able to control the message to some extent, without the use of overt violence which can be linked to them.

And back in Russia, Putin's use of terror to control his own population has not gone unnoticed. Given popular discontent with the Putin dynasty in Moscow, it is likely that Putin will be forced to pull out the old tools of terror once again, to cow his people into total submission.

Terrorism is apt to come into vogue over a wider domain, as debt and demography continue to take their toll on a declining west, and as the formerly hopeful BRICs begin their inexorable crumble. The tools of terror are likely to grow more sophisticated, as its practitioners extend from the primitive tribal populations of Islam into the more imaginative, better educated, and higher IQ populations of the western and East Asian worlds.

Think of it as Russia's gift to the modern world.

Russia and China on Tenderhooks?

Those who know Russia the best are the most eager to get themselves and their money out.

Money is flowing out of Russia faster than it is flowing in. The net outflow is expected to reach $70 billion by year-end, and the figures suggest that the bulk of that will be from large investors.

Yaroslav Lissovolik, chief economist for Deutsche Bank here, notes that “the scale of capital flight has more than compensated for the rise of oil prices.”

Even if oil output is maintained and crude prices stay relatively high, according to Russian finance ministry estimates, the nation’s current account will slip into deficit by 2014. Then Russia’s economy, like that of the United States, will depend on an inflow of investment, economists say. _NYT

Russia faces a political crisis as well as an economic one. And underlying it all, is the crisis of the shrinking demographic -- the vanishing away of the ethnic Russian.

After a decade of “stability”, Russia now looks as vulnerable to shock as the Soviet Union was at the end of its days. The big difference, however, is that the Soviet Union had a clear structure and, in Mikhail Gorbachev, a leader who was not prepared to defend himself with force. Today’s circumstances are very different.

Mr Putin is unlikely to follow the advice of Mr Gorbachev and cancel the results of the rigged election. He may instead resort to more active repression, thereby making the country look a lot more Soviet. This would only make the crisis worse. _Economist

China's situation is somewhat different from Russia's, although there are a few parallels in terms of movement along the spectrum from totalitarianism to partial liberalisation. But China's demographic is in no danger of shrinking to nothing. Instead, China's demographic is dangerously close to asserting itself against the government by revolutionary means.

When China's leadership saw how Moammar Kadafi was shot in the street, how Saddam Hussein was marched onto the scaffold and how Hosni Mubarak was tried as he lay in a cage — when they saw, as those autocrats lost power, how their families lost everything too — they must have sensed, I think, that it is not democracy they should fear but revolution. As the relatives of our high officials grow more wealthy, they emigrate to democratic countries (never to dictatorships); they know that the possibility of revolution in China is growing by the day. They know that revolution is never reasonable, that it drips with blood. _LATimes

When comparing the serious financial and political problems present in advanced nations such as Germany or the United States, with the problems facing Russia and China, the salient thing to remember is this: We expect that the Germans and the Americans understand, by and large, what is wrong and what will eventually have to be done to fix it. That is far from true for the Russians and the Chinese, who are sailing far from charted waters.

Of course, even in the more prosperous west, with its traditions of order and rule of law, the coming disruptions of growing debt and massive demographic change may prove to be too much of a shock for the governmental infrastructures of some nations to bear. Uncertainty about the future is not limited to "the coming anarchy" nations of the third world and nations trying to emerge from a recent totalitarian past.

Hope for the best. But keep your eyes open, your gas tank full, your boots oiled, your powder dry, and your knives sharp.

More on the Putin-Triggered Grand Exodus from Russia

Fifteen years ago, a teenage [Natalia] Lepleiskaya branded her cousin a traitor for moving to the United States rather than staying and working to change life in Russia for the better. As an adult, along with building a successful career, she volunteered at an orphanage and collected money and clothes for those in need.

In the early 2000s, she voted for Putin and his party, but as the years went by she became increasingly angered by what is happening in the country. Social inequality has worsened, corruption runs amok, opposition protests are violently dispersed and the television news often resembles Soviet propaganda.

"There came a moment when I stopped caring ... nothing will change substantially," Lepleiskaya said.

....She realizes that Russia's emerging market provides opportunities for high profits and quick career advancement in some spheres, but she doesn't trust the government to protect her savings against inflation and economic turmoil. Her father, a college instructor for 40 years, recently retired and receives a pension equivalent to $270 (euro200) per month.

"I don't want to sit on top of a tinderbox. I would rather build my career slowly, step by step, work and know that eventually when I am 60 the government will not let me down," she said.

She and her husband, Alexander, a 27-year-old IT specialist are set to receive their Canadian entry visas in the coming days and plan to fly to Montreal in the spring. Lepleiskaya now has to vaccinate her cat, who has the French name Xavier, sell off their belongings and begin saying goodbye to loved ones. _CBS

The depressing reality of life in Russia would wear down anyone, even a young, energetic idealist like Natalia. With up to 80% of Russia's elite university students eager to abandon ship and leave Russia, the ability for Russia to keep pace with global developments in science, technology, manufacturing, and infrastructure are virtually nonexistent.

Mikhail Denisenko at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow estimates that at least a half million Russians moved abroad in 2002-2009 and more are on the way in what he describes as the fifth wave of emigration since the beginning of the 20th century.

"The level of frustration is higher ... it's a feeling of discomfort, an aversion to life in Russia," said Lev Gudkov, the head of the Levada Center.

"The prospect of another 12 years of stagnation or even a worsening of the situation is frightening them and they are beginning to think about moving to a different country or at least providing a future for their children" abroad.

Numerous recent websites and blogs offer advice on how to emigrate. One of them, "Time to Shove Off," offers commentaries and videos exposing alleged crime and corruption among top Russian officials. "Yet another governor buys himself yet another Mercedes for 7 million rubles ($233,000 or euro175,000)," reads one posting. "Corruption as a lifestyle," a headline says.

"The news that Putin is staying has spoiled people's mood and this talk (of emigration) started resonating more," said Anton Nossik, a popular blogger and Internet expert, who holds seminars on emigration.

The democratic reforms ushered in by the 1991 Soviet collapse generated hope that Russia could finally become a free and progressive nation. But Putin's 11 years in power, first as president and now as prime minister, have left many people disillusioned and gloomy about the future. _CBS

Recent Russian parliamentary elections handed Vladimir Putin's party a stunning defeat, suggesting that even the Russians who stay behind are in no mood to put up with Putin's Tsar complex.

Putin believes that his control of Russia's massive energy resources and his own vast personal wealth will make him immune from growing popular discontent inside Russia -- and his growing unpopularity abroad. But it would be a mistake on Putin's part to count on the energy card too much. Global energy supply and demand are subject to significant change and flux.

Furthermore, if US voters wise up and eject Obama from the White House in the 2012 elections, the US is likely to turn into a formidable global energy competitor. Should that happen, a complete collapse of the Putin government between 2015 - 2020 is not out of the question.

Emperor Putin Prepares to Assume Role as Supreme Leader

Hanging over all the festivities in Moscow, like the sword of Damocles, is the demographic reality of progressive shrinkage and collapse of the core ethnic population of Russia. An empire requires the constant support of armies of loyal soldiers and citizens. Things may be moving too quickly for the sclerotic Russian bear too keep up.

2004 Premonitions of Putin Personality Cult
Back in 2004 at Putin's second swearing-in as Russian President, the mood in Russia was considerably more upbeat. Russia was clearly coming back from the brink, as oil prices were rising, and the global economic bubble was in full inflate mode.

Seven years later, in 2011, the prospects of 12 more years of Putin as "supreme leader" of Russia create a more somber mood. The underlying bombast and belligerence of an imperial Russia under Putin is just another thing the world has to worry about.

"Russia will begin this new iteration of a Russian empire by creating a union with former Soviet states based on Moscow's current associations, such as the customs union and the collective security treaty organisation. This will allow the 'EuU' [a Eurasia union] to strategically encompass both the economic and security spheres … Putin is creating a union in which Moscow would influence foreign policy and security but would not be responsible for most of the inner workings of each country," said Lauren Goodrich in a Stratfor paper.

Putin's third empire project also includes, crucially, a tightening of Moscow's politicised grip on Europe's strategic energy supplies.

Following last month's Gazprom deal with Belarus, industry analysts suggest up to 50% of Europe's natural gas could be controlled by Russia by 2030. This is hugely significant: Putin's new Russian empire can only be financed by continuing, high-priced energy export revenues. In effect, Europe could be paying for its own future domination.

The empire-fights-back scenario has numerous other aspects. Recent remarks by Medvedev about the lack of wisdom, in the context of the 2008 Georgia conflict, of unchecked Nato enlargement vividly illustrated Russia's visceral opposition to any interference in what used to be called its "near abroad" – and Putin's desire to roll back the western encroachments of the past 20 years. Russia's determination to defend wider spheres of traditional influence in the non-aligned and developing world can be seen in its obdurate refusal to penalise Syria, in the face of almost universal outrage over the crackdown there; and in its de facto defence of Iran's nuclear programme. Putin, meanwhile, continues to prioritise Russian military modernisation.

Western countries inclined to take issue with this external empire-building, or with Russia's lamentable internal democracy and human rights deficit, have been told to save their breath. "All our foreign partners need to understand this: Russia is a democratic country, it's a reliable and predictable partner with which they can and must reach agreement, but on which they cannot impose anything from the outside," Putin told the United Russia convention. Attempts to influence the election process or the reform agenda were "a wasted effort, like throwing money to the winds".

As Putin – former secret policeman, physical fitness fanatic and hyper-nationalist – prepares to resume Russia's presidency, his third empire ambitions become ever clearer. March's election will be no contest. Only when it is over will the real fight begin. _Guardian

The inability of the USSR's economic, scientific, and technological infrastructure to keep up with those of the western nations led to its much belated collapse. Something very similar is taking place in Russia now, with an important exception: The gates of emigration -- once closed tightly by the USSR dictatorship -- are now open. Russia's young can clearly compare Russia with the outside world, now, thanks to advanced telecommunications technologies, and communications with the huge numbers of Russians who have already emigrated.

Birthrates of Russian women after emigration to healthier societies tend to go up, compared with the unlucky girls who are left behind. The good Russian genes that created the beautiful women, world class chessmasters, top rank physicists and engineers, and highly skilled computer scientists and mathematicians, are being propagated mainly outside of Russia -- well-mixed with the genes of other, more worldly successful peoples.

Putin's empire may be shrinking, but the blood of Russia is mixing with the blood of the western world, outside the tsar's control. The resulting hybrid mix is likely to be hardier, if a bit more fatalistic.

Mr. Putin's Paradise for One

A private poll of 5,000 students at Moscow State University found that 80% intended to leave the country. Nor are Russia's filthy rich too patriotic about the motherland. Negative capital flows doubled this year from $34bn to $70bn. Even if the price of crude oil hit $125 a barrel, more money would be flowing out of the country than in. As it is, four times as much money (as a percentage of GDP) is going out than in. It tells you everything you need to know about a Russia digging in for another 12 years of Putin.

__Guardian

Mr. Putin holds all the cards in Russia at this time. His enemies are in prison or dead. His friends and cronies hold positions of power around the country, and pay him tribute on a regular basis. Anyone willing to publicly threaten Putin within Russia would have to be crazy.

The going rate is $50m for a governorship, $500,000 for a middle-ranking bureaucrat. Little wonder that once in power, their job is to get a healthy return on their investment. There are decent governors, and the group saw one at work effectively attracting foreign investment in Kaluga, south of Moscow, but the directly appointed system itself is rotten. Putin makes little secret of his disdain for the alternative, freely elected governors. Some observers say he has a pathological hatred of democracy. To underline his disdain he has now, for the second year in a row, told the story of the elected governor who legged it out the back door rather than face the fury of the mob after a local disaster.

But, truth be told, Putin is also at a loss when he gets jeered. And this, according to the pollsters, will happen more often. It is not just that Putin's personal brand is ageing. The popularity of the entire St Petersburg clique around him is falling with him. United Russia, the party of apparatchiks he created, will by hook or by crook, but largely by crook, get the required percentage of votes in Sunday's Duma elections. Last time round Moscow students were told by tutors to take digital snaps of their ballot sheets if they wanted the right grades – one of many examples of the "vote early, vote often" variety. But the party is a fragile instrument of power because it represents no one but itself.

Putin's problem is not staying in power. It is leaving it – without all hell breaking lose between rival boyars, and with his personal fortune intact. _Guardian

Putin is easily one of the wealthiest men alive. In third world countries, that is how men grow rich -- through political power. In such states, opportunities for success outside government are minimal, and never secure or lasting. That is why the truly ambitious and competent persons in such countries who do not wish to work in the public sector, often emigrate to freer environments.

Putin's Coming Next 12 Years: Rumblings of Instability?

Challenged with the view that Russia and its exhausted political system were heading towards stagnation, he disarmingly said, “I have nothing to object to in what you are saying”, adding later that “our system is not perfect.” _Economist

Economist

Mr Putin seemed blithely confident that Russia’s economic growth would not be affected by the global crisis. Others are more doubtful, including his former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, who predicts that the oil price could fall to $60 a barrel, presenting Russia with challenges as serious as those in Europe and America. Mr Kudrin’s resignation, after Mr Putin’s promise to make Mr Medvedev prime minister, also lowers the chances of the sort of authoritarian modernisation that some liberals had once hoped for.

In foreign policy Mr Putin remained unrepentantly blunt, notably on missile defence (see article). He promoted his pet idea of a Eurasian union to foster economic integration with Russia’s former Soviet neighbours. But the Kremlin has neither the money nor the popular support for this—and Ukraine, the biggest potential prize, remains unenthusiastic. _Economist

Russia is warning that the threat of nuclear war is rising once again, with Mr. Putin's return to the presidency. Putin wants to return Russia to superpower status, and one of his strategies is apparently to wave the nuclear threat.

"The possibility of local armed conflicts virtually along the entire perimeter of the border has grown dramatically," [General] Makarov said. “I cannot rule out that, in certain circumstances, local and regional armed conflicts could grow into a large-scale war, possibly even with nuclear weapons.” _rt.com

But at its core, Russia is a sick, ageing, and shrinking nation. It is doubtful whether Russia can hold on to its land holdings in the far east for many more decades.

The fate of babies that are born in Russia is a bleak one. Russia ranks #6 in the world for fatality by suicide. It has the second-highest prevalence of AIDS in Eurasia. It is #7 in the world for cigarette consumption and #5 in the world for alcohol consumption. Its rate of fatality by fire is ten times that of the United States, and it is the most dangerous place in the world to drive a car or get on a plane.

...Russians are deeply, fundamentally, infamously suspicious of anyone who is not white, Slavic and Orthodox, and therefore the notion of creating a "melting pot" in Russia is nothing more than a pipe dream. If the inflow of such persons continues there will be a furious backlash led by Russia's fearless and shameless skinhead nationalists.
What's more, with every day that passes, more and more Russians flee their country, while they still have the chance. Entrepreneurs most particularly, are leaving in droves. As this process accelerates and the supply of wretched refuse so lowly that they see Russia as a step up diminishes, immigration will cease to be a factor in stabilizing Russia's population._AT

Here is how Russia can still throw its weight around:

...First, nuclear weapons. Simplest and most direct, Russia can threaten to blow up the world if it doesn't get what it wants.

Second, oil and gas. Especially in former Soviet space, Russia can threaten energy blackmail, turning off the lights and the heat in any country that doesn't do Moscow's bidding. The government of Ukraine has recently announced a massive shale exploration program to try to break its dependence on Russian crude.

Finally, cold war politics. Russia can funnel money, weapons and diplomatic support to the rogue regimes of the Middle East, just the way the USSR always did. It can threaten to roil their oil markets and create political instability throughout the region. _AT

Mr. Putin is not reluctant to play the international thug on the world stage, either. If he can not be the leader of a world superpower, at least he can make things more difficult for other leading economic powers. According to traditional thinking of the Russian peasant class, it is better to keep your rival from getting ahead, than to get ahead yourself.

But the erstwhile tsar will have his hands full just keeping his own country in one piece. Meddling in the far corners of the globe while his own human infrastructure crumbles, may be his downfall.