Tuesday, January 26, 2010

China is Making Waves Around the World.

...that prosperity also attracts more Han Chinese immigrants, which dilutes the ethnic Tibetan majority, and angers ethnic Tibetans. StratPage
China needs lebensraum, and it intends to get it by hook or crook. Occupying Tibet and Xinjiang is not enough. China needs Taiwan, it needs Siberia. China needs Africa and it needs more of Central Asia. China needs big parts of South and Central America, and China needs as much of the Caribbean as it can get. China needs room to grow. But is it possible that China is getting ahead of itself here?
China's economic invasion of Africa in the last decade has been running into more resistance. The Chinese custom of importing Chinese to do the work, including manual labor, for construction projects, has caused increasing anti-Chinese feelings in African countries. There, high unemployment, and cultural differences, are leading to more clashes between Chinese and the locals. Chinese firms are being forced to hire more locals. The Chinese don't like this, because the Chinese work harder and more efficiently, and the locals don't like being ordered to try and keep up. This Chinese invasion is spreading to the Middle East, South America and sensitive (to India) nations like Nepal.

...the Chinese market is what drives Chinese economic growth now. The export market is gravy, and a way to learn how to build better products and steal technology.

...All this economic activity has increased Chinese dependence on the sea. This is unique in Chinese history, for in the past, China was self-sufficient and ignored naval matters. No more. The admirals are pointing out that, without control of long sea routes to Africa, Australia and South America, the Chinese economy would choke.

...Decades of the "one child" (for urban couples especially) policy, and the preference for baby boys, has created a girl deficit. In the next decade, over 20 million more Chinese men, than women, will be looking for mates. Already, legal brokers, and less legal gangsters, are supplying the shortage by attracting (or kidnapping) young women from neighboring countries. This is not popular with the neighbors, and causing increasing tension. _Strategy Page

Analysts who assume that China has grown out of its need for foreign export markets are getting ahead of themselves as well. China built up a healthy trade surplus during a time of global economic expansion. But China could easily use up its nest egg attempting to create a booming domestic economy when its current method of governance is not arranged to deal with domestic prosperity.

China's top-heavy wealth disparity is manageable as long as the top-heavy CCP can keep an eye on most of the powerful men in China, and as long as the government can control the technology of information and wealth transfer. If China is to develop a truly prosperous domestic economy -- instead of just talking about it ad nauseum -- it will inevitably lose an unacceptable amount of control.

Mark Steyn thinks that China will break on the basis of demographic stresses. But I suspect that China will crack wide open on the basis of its inability to deal with the contradictory forces arising from a prosperous expansion while attempting to enforce totalitarianism at the same time.

It is likely to end either in war, or warlordism.  China has known much of both over the millenia.  It is likely to know much more.

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