Tuesday, November 08, 2011

China's Structural Economic Problems Coming Home to Roost?

The Chinese banks are in serious trouble. They have papered over losses. The bank books in China aren’t giving an accurate picture of their true financial position. In the US this is fraud. In China, it’s supported by the government.

The Chinese government has a lot of competing interests to control. It is virtually impossible to have a long term successful centrally planned economy in a country as large and diverse as China.

I have heard stories of how the Chinese simply take huge tracts of land and develop it . The concept of property rights and individual rights are non-existent. It’s impressive to see how they have built amazingly gargantuan cities practically overnight. Underneath all of that, the foundation is unsteady. _PointsandFigures

Al Fin economists have been warning about the structural problems within China's economic structure for years now. Slowly but surely, the overt reality is catching up to the covert reality which had triggered the alarm bells within the Al Fin Economic Institute, years ago.
...China’s growth is likely to slow to 8.7 percent next year, 6.6 percent in each of the four years after that, and then average 3.5 percent per year between 2017 and 2025. It has long been an article of faith inside China and among most China watchers that the country needs 9 percent growth per year to avoid widespread instability.

If China’s growth decelerates that fast, that far, the biggest question in world politics won’t be how the rest of us will accommodate China’s rise. The question will shift to whether China can last.

The report, well covered in the Wall Street Journal, is a sober read. Overall, world growth is expected to decline, with both China and India leading the decline. The advanced countries are expected to recover from the current slump, but growth will remain anemic for years to come. In other parts of the developing world, growth could slow to a crawl, presumably reflecting poor demand for basic commodities in a slow growth world. _WalterRussellMead
As the economies of India, China, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, etc. slow down, the decline of the BRICS will trigger a secondary decline in commodities producing nations, as demand for commodities fails to keep up with supplies.

Regimes across the globe will fall, rise, and fall again in the resulting economic and political instability. Wars will be triggered -- and if the world is lucky, they will be confined to local regions, and not be allowed to escalate to global and nuclear scales.

The mass delusions of carbon hysteria, global resource scarcity, exponential growth in demand, overpopulation doom, and all the rest of the lefty-green instigated wild-goose-chases which have led to such great resource misallocation, will die a long overdue death.

The challenge will be to maintain the momentum of advanced research and technology which will allow the global population to move up to a cleaner and more abundant future. This can never happen as long as the lefty-greens maintain influence.

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