Monday, June 13, 2011

Rosenberg: US Crash in 2012 Roubini: China Crash in 2013

David Rosenberg of Gluskin, Sheff, & Associates, predicts a 99% chance of another US recession in the year 2012.

Nouriel Roubini predicts that China is in for a "hard landing" by the year 2013.
"I was recently in Shanghai and I took their high-speed train to Hangzhou," he said, referring to the new Maglev line that has cut traveling time between the two cities to less than an hour from four hours previously.

"The brand new high-speed train is half-empty and the brand new station is three-quarters empty. Parallel to that train line, there is a also a new highway that looked three-quarters empty. Next to the train station is also the new local airport of Shanghai and you can fly to Hangzhou," he said.

"There is no rationale for a country at that level of economic development to have not just duplication but triplication of those infrastructure projects." _Reuters

Roubini also sees the Eurozone in crisis, and possibly heading for a breakup.

The twin processes of debt and demography are poison for both Europe and the US. China's problems lie largely in the corrupt command economy's political constraints and inability to allow market forces to work their creative destruction. China's government appears addicted to the "broken window fallacy," which can create impressive GDP numbers but is hugely wasteful of resources -- human and otherwise. Ghost cities, ghost super-trains, ghost highways, and ghost shopping malls are the least of China's problems.

In no small part due to the US Obama administration's anti-market bias and ultra-cheap dollar policies, the global economy is experiencing multiple simultaneous and interactive shocks and aftershocks.

Getting rid of Obama will do very little good, however, unless the entire bandwagon of catastrophe that brought Obama into office is likewise disposed of. That bandwagon is massive, with a historical momentum that appears unstoppable. Debt and demographic decline can only smooth the way for the monstrosity.

That is why it is so important for future oriented individuals to plan for the possibility of a sustained economic collapse due to dysfunctional government -- as occurred in Zimbabwe, Cuba, the USSR, Mao's China, modern day Venezuela, etc etc etc.

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