New US Births Coming Mainly from Minorities: Higher Crime Rates Coming?

Update 25June11: This blog posting by Financial Armageddon reveals some of the crimes likely to grow more common as th US undergoes its rapid demographic transformation.

According to the latest US Census numbers, US minorities now produce most new babies in the country. This trend is expected to accelerate over time, and lead to ever greater ethnic diversity across most of the US, as the US white population ages and dies without replacing itself. What will this trend do to crime rates across the US?

The map above looks at imprisonment rates per 100,000 among non-hispanic whites (via Steve Sailer). When compared to imprisonment rates among US blacks in the map below, it is clear that black imprisonment rates are far higher.

Comparing black imprisonment rates shown in the map above with US hispanic imprisonment rates in the map below, clearly hispanic rates are lower than black rates, but still higher than white imprisonment rates.

Below, you see a comparison of offending rates for US homicide by race (black vs. white) over a 30 year time period (from US DOJ).

When looking at violent crime rates in various cities and communities by ethnic makeup, it is clear that the higher the proportion of blacks within a given city or community, the higher the violent crime rates, in general. This suggests that as the proportion of white citizens in US cities declines, to the extent that they are replaced by younger black citizens, crime rates are likely to rise.

Most hispanic newcomers to the US are from Mexico and Central America, from countries with rather high rates of violent crime in comparison to most parts of the US. As more US communities achieve ethnic makeups similar to those of Mexican and Central American communities, it is not unreasonable to expect to see similar levels of crime in the transformed American communities, over time, as these communities adjust to populations with higher poverty, less education, and higher levels of corruption in local government.

As more of wealth in the US becomes concentrated in the hands of fewer and fewer whites (disregarding Asians for now), expect to see more secure gated communities, and a booming market in private security services of all kinds -- including anti-kidnap bodyguards and chauffeurs.

The combination of affirmative action, lax border security, and generous welfare benefits (in comparison to impoverished home countries etc), provide incentives for growth of a permanent underclass -- more prone to crime and other dysfunctional behaviours such as high rates of illegitimate births.

The same dysfunctional and dysgenic (average US black IQ = 85, average US hispanic IQ approx. 90) processes are occurring across the developed world, from Europe to Oceania to North America. In Japan and South Korea -- where immigration is minimal -- populations are simply shrinking and fading away over time. Presumably nations of fading populations such as Japan and South Korea will not suffer the higher crime rates which more diverse and aging populations will suffer.

More: See Color of Crime for an analysis of black vs. white crime taken from official US DOJ data

From "Handbook of Crime Correlates, by Ellis, Beaver, Wright:"

Numerous studies have been conducted in the United States in which the proportions of black populations are correlated with the region’s crime rate....most of these studies have concluded that violent crime rates are significantly higher in neighborhoods and/or cities with the highest proportions of black residents, especially regarding violent offenses. _Ch3 p42

Blacks and Crime Rates, a lesson from Australia

See Wikipedia Race and Crime in the US

Steve Sailer: Mapping race and crime

US DOJ: Uniform Crime Reporting

One important note of caution: Police departments have been caught falsifying crime rate statistics in order to make it appear that crime-fighting efforts were more effective than they actually were. Observers should be aware that corruption in US governments at all levels is another parameter that could very well change to more closely approximate the levels seen in source countries.