Tuesday, October 16, 2012

France Elects Its Own Obama -- Risks Rapid Decline

The French have been long enamoured with US President Barack Obama, and as a result they have elected a French equivalent: Francois Hollande. Monsieur Hollande is already beginning to have the same effect on French private enterprise which Mr. Obama has had on the US private sector.
“The situation is very serious. Some business leaders are in a state of quasi-panic,” said Laurence Parisot, head of employers’ group MEDEF. “The pace of bankruptcies has accelerated over the summer. We are seeing a general loss of confidence by investors. Large foreign investors are shunning France altogether. It’s becoming really dramatic.” _Evans-Pritchard
The biggest problem with political leaders of a socialist bent, is they typically have no real understanding of how economies work. Certainly Mr. Obama never worked outside of politics or academia, and the same appears to be true for Monsieur Hollande.

Modern leftist ideology is best described as a tautological fantasy ideology -- essentially unfalsifiable, and only answerable to anyone when national economies collapse and the fools are thrown out.

The fear is that a fiscal shock in 2013 will tip the economy into a sharp downward slide. “France needs more fiscal austerity right now like a hole in the head,” said sovereign debt strategist Nicholas Spiro.

“They don’t have any chance of meeting their growth target of 0.8pc next year, but that does not in itself put French debt at risk.

“The real danger is contagion if things turn ugly in Spain.” _Evans-Pritchard
Obama entered office just as the US was beginning to emerge from a significant financial crisis and recession. While Mr. Obama's policies made the US economy far more sluggish and depressed than it should have been, he was partially saved by the revolutionary shale oil & gas bonanza -- which occurred despite his policies rather than because of them.

Mr. Hollande has no reason to expect such a providential bailout from anyone or anything. Hollande has rejected shale drilling, and is also proposing drastic and potentially crippling reductions in France's nuclear power industry.

The near to intermediate future does not appear to be very promising for France. Of course, if Obama is re-elected, the future for the US is likely to be similarly dismal.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. And remember: It is never too late for a dangerous childhood.


GreenWorld said...

As a French man who admirs free markets, I must tell you that this is wrong information. Hollande is not Obama, France would be only so lucky if he were Obama. Hollande is way way to the left of Obama, and he will bring us to our knees with his socialist crazedness. I did not much like Sarkozy at a personal level, but his losing was disaster for France.
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al fin said...

It is good to know that a few Frenchmen still admire free markets. Frederic Bastiat was a Frenchman, after all.

Rulers tend to do the most damage in their own countries, where they have mastered the political system.

If Hollande and Obama were to trade places, neither could do as much damage in the other's country, due to lack of familiarity with how things got done.

Hollande, for example, would be laughed off any stage on which he tried to speak -- he would be unable to connect with an American audience.

Obama, being an incompetent and perfect buffoon in person, would soon disappoint the French public.