Impending Collapse of North Korea--Will South Korea Step Up to the Plate?

The biggest test of the mettle of the government and people of South Korea will be when North Korea collapses--which according to Jane's Information Group could be as early as the next 6 months.

The day Kim Jong-Il and his family flee North Korea will be a great day for the cause of human rights. Yet it is also a day that leaders in China, South Korea, and the U.S. dread. Chaos and a security nightmare will replace the previous state of brutal stability. And a gargantuan economic bill, to be borne by someone, will then begin to mount.

Once the North Korean police state collapses, it will be impossible to keep the global media out of the Hermit Kingdom. For the first time, the world will get to view the economic and social depravation imposed by the Kim regime. The pressure for wide-ranging humanitarian and economic relief will be immense.

However, government leaders in China, South Korea, and the U.S. will remember the economic consequences of the reunification of Germany. Germany's reunification resulted in a surge in Europe's inflation rate and a tightening of monetary policy in response, which later led to a painful recession. The economic situation in North Korea is even more extreme, a condition the global media won't let the world ignore.

But those are just the beginning of North Korea's costs. Even if the North Korean army were to assist a Chinese or South Korean or American relief force, such an expeditionary relief force would face large logistical challenges. The first task of the expeditionary force would be to find and seize control of North Korea's stockpiles of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, along with any fissile material. Even with the cooperation of the North Koreans, this would be dangerous work. Add to that crowd control and humanitarian relief, and the costs and risks of the expedition multiply.

The intervention force would have to face the prospect that many officers in North Korea's army and secret police would resist an occupation of the country. Thus, the intervention force might very well have to find and seize control of North Korea's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) stockpiles in the face of a terror insurgency armed with these very weapons.____TCSDaily

What a massively collectivist cluster-foque! West Germany was able to absorb East Germany, when its communist government folded. Although South Korea is quite affluent, few global analysts respect South Korea's ability to intervene to prevent massive human disaster.

China has been quite possessive of its "pet pit bull Kim". Is it likely that China would allow US troops to participate in a human relief mission--to save as many N. Koreans from starvation as possible? That question is debatable. China does not want North Korea to fall from its collectivist orbit. The CCP will try to install a puppet government to replace Kim--but will it work? Will the South Koreans have the substance to insist on re-unification on its terms?

The US would like to re-position its troops from the Korean peninsula to better locations. But what is South Korea made of? Can Seoul stand up to Beijing? We will find out, perhaps to our dismay, within years.