Thursday, February 14, 2008

China to Send 300 Million Chinese to Africa

According to one official, China will need to move 300 million Chinese nationals to Africa, in order to reduce overpopulation and environmental devastation in the Chinese homeland.
During the last decade tens of thousands have uprooted themselves from China and migrated to Africa, with Chinese-government approval. There are estimated to be 750,000 Chinese across the continent, 900 Chinese companies, and an overall Chinese investment of $6 billion. Yet most Chinese speak neither English nor any African language....The Chinese work in agriculture, trade and construction, and are doing everything from producing oil and developing giant state-financed infrastructure projects building roads and railways, to smaller enterprises producing shoes, textiles, motorbikes, TVs and CDs.

...But the continent has come alight with Chinese enterprise. It is a new frontier for them, a land filled with promise, and Chinese faces are everywhere. Having jettisoned the communist ideological and revolutionary ideals that had tied them to Africa in the first place in favour of trade, today the Chinese are Africa’s newest, most enthusiastic and rampant capitalists...Nor do the newcomers seeking their fortune view Africa as a place of drought, war, disease and poverty – often the Western perception of Africa. “Africa is a paradise for wide lives,” said Luo Hung, a famous Chinese photographer who has been wooing fellow Chinese to Africa with photographic exhibitions in the big Chinese cities. “The landscapes, animals and human beings there create a harmonious and beautiful picture.”...A family in China will save for years to send just one of its members to Africa. Unlike cautious Westerners they are not afraid to start small – a massage parlour or restaurant here, a sewing shop or pharmacy there – which offer modest but quick returns on investment. Many live in small apartments on small wages in conditions that no European would consider.

...Like it or not, China’s growing economic presence in Africa is a reality that Europe and America have to face. It is unstoppable and has brought Africa to a tipping point. It could be a moment of immense opportunity....Chinese contractors are fast and competitively priced. There is plenty of positive spin-off. One is China’s provision of cheap chemicals enabling, in Tanzania’s case, the local pharmaceutical industry to manufacture life-saving generic anti-retroviral drugs for the millions of Africans with Aids. They cost less than £6 a month....The Chinese cash is a godsend for Africa. But it could yet turn out to be a curse if it is misused by Africa’s leaders who, Africa’s record on corruption shows, can be easily tempted.

...On big construction projects, wherever possible, the Chinese insist on importing their own workforce from China. These workers live in sprawling camps, eat like they did at home, and make little or no effort to adopt African customs, learn the language, much less marry local African girls. It is a harsh existence that no comfort-loving Westerner would consider emulating.

However, where the Chinese have done this – oil-rich Angola and mineral-rich Zambia come to mind – resentment has often arisen because of their unwillingness to employ indigenous workers. Even the unskilled labour is fulfilled by the Chinese. In Angola, the government has agreed that 70% of tendered public works must go to Chinese firms, most of which do not employ Angolans. The Chinese are also causing concern at the way they have used African countries as dumping grounds for cheap goods. Many small companies across Africa have been forced into dire straits, even bankruptcy, by Chinese competition...In Tanzania, for example, the scene of China’s great railway triumph, the country’s only flip-flop factory is dying. A few years ago it employed some 3,000 people and sold flip-flops across the continent. Now it employs only 1,000. Its Lebanese manager complains that he cannot compete with cheap Chinese imports sold for less than cost price. There have been stories that the Chinese were shipping goods in diplomatic containers to the embassy in Dar es Salaam, avoiding customs and import duty.____Times

China is using Africa more ruthlessly and cynically than a western nation could, at this time. No worries about human rights, environmental quality, or the massive human suffering occurring right under the noses of Chinese traders and contractors.

The Chinese understand the ruthless dictators on the dark continent, and have no qualms about dealing directly with butchers and murderers, who allow their own people to starve and bleed. That is nothing to migrants from the middle kingdom, who are only there to make a profit, then go home.

If China ever decides to make a longer-term stand in Africa, it may be necessary for them to make "king-making" deals with tribal leaders currently out of power, to get the concessions they will want. There is nothing so expected as a bloody coup, in SubSaharan lands.

Still, 300 million emigrants from China to Africa? At a time when the massive Chinese population is aging so rapidly? If so, it is possible for one reason--the one child policy. When families routinely have but one child, there are no cousins, no aunts or uncles, no siblings. Only parents, grandparents, and child. Fewer ties to the home country, perhaps. It will be interesting to watch.

3 comments:

Snake Oil Baron said...

I thought that the 300 million figure was odd too. Even if China's population was expanding rapidly there is still the rapidly depopulating Russia and, to a lesser extent, Western nations that would continue to attract immigrants.

China's one child policy is preventing greater economic connection with the rest of the world than would otherwise be possible. And the lack of cultural contact between Chinese immigrants and Africans (I suspect due to prejudice) limits long-term opportunities. But then, Chinese kids born in Africa (some of them anyway) might develop different attitudes.

al fin said...

Hmmm. I doubt the 300 million figure very much. It sounded good in the title, and since apparently some Chinese official actually made the comment, why not quote it?

As you say, Baron, Eastern Siberia and the entire of SE Asia sit there ripe for the taking--all the Chinese have to do is to make themselves indispensable through their financial and commercial savvy.

As for Africa, I suspect that the prognosis is dire, in terms of the future of the Africans themselves. Chinese migrants could very well thrive long term in the more temperate areas like South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana etc.

The problem for the Chinese Empire, is that there is very little to induce a heart-felt loyalty to the CCP Government. Chinese nationalism is strong, but the CCP? No, I suspect that as various centers of Chinese enterprise are spread around the globe, that loyalty to Beijing will fray.

Snake Oil Baron said...

I just had a thought about a half hour ago that the 300 million was meant to be the number of trips rather than the number of people. Every person who went for a few months with one company came back then went for another would count as multiple trips.

While I have become pessimistic about a about a near term economic take off like that which Asia experienced during my youth, I see slow progress in enough places combined with a lot of 'learning the hard way' adding up to general improvements in living conditions for Africa. Urbanization, investment and technological transfer, especially from nations like India and China with similar problems of rural poverty and rapid slum formation but with more research and development clout will work away at the continent. If you judged Asia by North Korea, Burma and Vietnam a few decades ago you might not have foreseen where the continent would be today.

I suspect that the smaller number of Chinese who go to Africa as entrepreneurs or who stay on as such will have a more lasting impact than the huge number who go as labours. Eventually communities will be established and extended family members will start to go over. I remember a decade or so ago there was discussion about the Chinese in the Pacific states and provinces of North America. It was said that they would never learn English and they always stayed in their our communities. Terms like cultural imperialism were tossed out on occasion. Now it seems that every other married couple in California is Asian/European. While this might not happen in Africa I would not rule it out.

I agree that the Chinese will have little interest in supporting the Communist government but the economic ties between homeland and overseas communities will both the people and the state in the near and medium term time frame. Though a large enough population in overseas communities might, over the long term, put both formal political and consumer driven PR pressure on the government.