Chavez Caught in His Own Trap

Hugo Chavez has mobilized his army along the Venezuelan/Colombian border. Faced with discontent at home, and growing international evidence that he is helping to finance the FARC campaign of narco-terrorist violence against neighboring Colombia, Chavez feels forced to act. Unfortunately for Hugo, his powerful friends--Russia and China--are too far away to be of much help, should the US decide to include Chavez' small nation in the international "Axis of Evil."

This week, Colombia launched a strike against a FARC base in Ecuador. Tired of terrorism, Colombia is not going to let FARC thugs hide in Ecuadorian or Venezuelan jungles. Moreover, the Colombian government now says FARC intended to attack Colombia with "dirty" (radioactive) bombs in a desperate blitz to cow the populace. Colombian president Alvaro Uribe said, "We cannot allow terrorists who seek refuge in other countries to spill the blood of our countrymen."

Ecuador and its ally, Venezuela, responded by threatening Colombia with war.

Colombia argues that support for FARC by Ecuador and Venezuela means a state of quasi-war already exists.

FARC definitely established a political relationship with Chavez-led Venezuela. Chavez advocates "socialism" (socialist dictatorship), and FARC had Marxist roots. Last year, the connections became overt when Chavez asked Colombia to agree to let FARC use Venezuela as a "sanctuary zone."

Despite their blatant thuggery, both Chavez and FARC still have "progressive" apologists in Europe and among American leftists. Chavez claims Fidel Castro's "anti-Yankee" legacy, which polishes his "progressive" appeal. Add this to the flammable mix: Ecuador's president is a personal ally of Chavez and something of a protege.

The conventional wisdom says Chavez is bluffing. The Peru-Ecuador Border War of 1995, however, demonstrates that border skirmishing in South America can quickly escalate. Still, South American border wars stir nationalist passions -- in the 1995 conflict, Peru's authoritarian president, Alberto Fujimori, saw his popularity skyrocket.

Chavez faces domestic troubles. He has brutalized his domestic opponents. He has squandered Venezuela's oil windfall -- on populist political schemes and Russian weapons. He suffered a stinging setback in late 2007 in a referendum that would have essentially made him president for life. Oil production is declining. His political supporters have enriched themselves, sparking resentment among poor Venezuelans who once overwhelmingly backed Chavez. ___StrategyPage

Chavez believes that going to war will unite the country behind him. But that strategy does not always work out well for the aggressor. In fact, with the US preparing to gear down operations in Iraq, battle hardened units of the US military will be looking for new "training ground."