Demographic Collapse in Russia Threatens Pensions

The collapse in the birth rate after the breakup of the Soviet Union two decades ago will cause Russia's labor force to shrink 11 million by 2030, while the number of pensioners will grow by 9 million. _MoscowTimes

Perhaps the silver lining of Russia's pension problem is that Russian men do not often live long enough to enjoy their pensions. High death rates from heart disease, alcoholism, suicide, tuberculosis, crime, accidents, and smoking related diseases allow only a few old Russian men to live long enough to complain about their pensions.

One solution involves increasing the time Russians would have to work to receive a full pension. The Social Development Ministry proposes boosting this period to 40-45 years, up from just five years at present.

In one of his first decrees as the new president, Putin has called for a mechanism that rewards pensioners who work beyond the official retirement age.

"It is a hidden hike in the pension age, but they don't want to do this openly," said Julia Tsepliaeva, chief economist at BNP Paribas in Moscow.

To save money, the plan would also have to penalize Russians who still retire at 55 or 60. It's far from clear that Putin has the political stomach for such an unpopular step.

. "Unfortunately, people don't realize that they are paying for pensions themselves," said Gurvich. "They have paternalistic thinking and think that the government pays. So they don't like the idea of working longer." _MoscowTimes

Somehow I doubt that Putin -- or any Russian politician or official -- can get away with raising work requirements for a pension from just 5 years all the way up to 40-45 years.

With the average life expectancy for Russian men barely at or above 60 years, most men will not be healthy enough to work that long, and many will not survive that long -- work or no work.

As the numbers of ethnic Russians inside the country continues to shrink -- and the numbers of non-Russians inside Russia continues to grow -- there will be the further problem of conflict between the non-Russian workers who may not wish to pay high taxes to support ethnic Russian pensioners.

Of course, that conflict can arise in any country where demographic replacement -- due to differential birthrates and immigration -- is taking place.

US Demographic Change Alters More than Ethnicity

The US has passed a milestone: From now on, the majority of births in the US will be to non-European women. Highest birthrates in the US occur among non-white Hispanics. Black American women also have higher birthrates than do Euro American women. Birthrates among the much smaller groups of disparate Asian populations in the US vary considerably.

Wall Street Journal

For the first time in US history, whites of European ancestry account for less than half of newborn children, marking a demographic tipping point . . . _WSJ

This demographic tipping point changes a lot more than just the ethnic makeup of the US population. Because different population groups tend to arise from different cultures, holding different customs and values, the political and economic behaviour of the new majority is likely to tip the overall economic and political behaviour of the US significantly.

Perhaps it would be instructive to look at the differences between the populations of Northern Europe and Southern Europe. While both the North and the South are governed by some form of welfare state, Northern Europeans tend to be more naturally austere and thrifty, whereas Southern Europeans tend to take like more from day to day, enjoying the warmer sunnier climate, the wine, the Med.

Greece is becoming the first to suffer for its peoples' inherent lack of austerity and thrift. As Greece's economy crumbles, a regime of austerity would allow the country's economy to recover its footing -- but the politics of Greece and the natural inclination of its people will not tolerate austerity enforced from above. And as for austerity from within -- the people simply do not have it in them.

The same is likely to prove true for Spain, Italy, Portugal, as the economic crisis worsens for each in its turn. Their economies could use some austerity to allow them to recover and rebuild, but the people are not likely to stand for it. Perhaps it was the lack of inherent austerity in the people which allowed the situation to approach its denouement.

In the demographic transition of the US, we see populations of innate austerity giving way to rapidly growing populations which lack this natural thrift and planning sense. Given these changes, we can expect the trend toward larger government and less personal savings, planning, and responsibility, to accelerate rapidly.

Regardless of the best intentions, and all of the other strengths which may be brought to a nation, people cannot help who they are. If a majority contains a flaw which will prove to be fatal within a particular type of political and economic system -- say a democratic welfare state -- then events will work themselves out much like water finding its way to the sea.

There are many ways to find one's way to "the truth", but at the end of every chapter in life, the real world will have had its say.

Some changes are abrupt and unpredictable. Other changes -- such as the associated alterations of society that are likely to come with a changing demographic -- occur very slowly. And while these alterations may be predictable, they can take place at a rate which allows them to be easily ignored, if the mainstream of government, media, and academia does not wish the population to be bothered with troublesome implications.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. And expect something somewhere unpredictably in between.

New US Births Coming Mainly from Minorities: Higher Crime Rates Coming?

Update 25June11: This blog posting by Financial Armageddon reveals some of the crimes likely to grow more common as th US undergoes its rapid demographic transformation.

According to the latest US Census numbers, US minorities now produce most new babies in the country. This trend is expected to accelerate over time, and lead to ever greater ethnic diversity across most of the US, as the US white population ages and dies without replacing itself. What will this trend do to crime rates across the US?

The map above looks at imprisonment rates per 100,000 among non-hispanic whites (via Steve Sailer). When compared to imprisonment rates among US blacks in the map below, it is clear that black imprisonment rates are far higher.

Comparing black imprisonment rates shown in the map above with US hispanic imprisonment rates in the map below, clearly hispanic rates are lower than black rates, but still higher than white imprisonment rates.

Below, you see a comparison of offending rates for US homicide by race (black vs. white) over a 30 year time period (from US DOJ).

When looking at violent crime rates in various cities and communities by ethnic makeup, it is clear that the higher the proportion of blacks within a given city or community, the higher the violent crime rates, in general. This suggests that as the proportion of white citizens in US cities declines, to the extent that they are replaced by younger black citizens, crime rates are likely to rise.

Most hispanic newcomers to the US are from Mexico and Central America, from countries with rather high rates of violent crime in comparison to most parts of the US. As more US communities achieve ethnic makeups similar to those of Mexican and Central American communities, it is not unreasonable to expect to see similar levels of crime in the transformed American communities, over time, as these communities adjust to populations with higher poverty, less education, and higher levels of corruption in local government.

As more of wealth in the US becomes concentrated in the hands of fewer and fewer whites (disregarding Asians for now), expect to see more secure gated communities, and a booming market in private security services of all kinds -- including anti-kidnap bodyguards and chauffeurs.

The combination of affirmative action, lax border security, and generous welfare benefits (in comparison to impoverished home countries etc), provide incentives for growth of a permanent underclass -- more prone to crime and other dysfunctional behaviours such as high rates of illegitimate births.

The same dysfunctional and dysgenic (average US black IQ = 85, average US hispanic IQ approx. 90) processes are occurring across the developed world, from Europe to Oceania to North America. In Japan and South Korea -- where immigration is minimal -- populations are simply shrinking and fading away over time. Presumably nations of fading populations such as Japan and South Korea will not suffer the higher crime rates which more diverse and aging populations will suffer.

More: See Color of Crime for an analysis of black vs. white crime taken from official US DOJ data

From "Handbook of Crime Correlates, by Ellis, Beaver, Wright:"

Numerous studies have been conducted in the United States in which the proportions of black populations are correlated with the region’s crime rate....most of these studies have concluded that violent crime rates are significantly higher in neighborhoods and/or cities with the highest proportions of black residents, especially regarding violent offenses. _Ch3 p42

Blacks and Crime Rates, a lesson from Australia

See Wikipedia Race and Crime in the US

Steve Sailer: Mapping race and crime

US DOJ: Uniform Crime Reporting

One important note of caution: Police departments have been caught falsifying crime rate statistics in order to make it appear that crime-fighting efforts were more effective than they actually were. Observers should be aware that corruption in US governments at all levels is another parameter that could very well change to more closely approximate the levels seen in source countries.

Women: Go to College and Die Childless and Unloved

That seems to be one of the messages coming out of the latest US census report. Apparently women who go to college and postpone childbearing are considerably less likely to ever have children, and less likely to ever marry.

Fertility researcher Karen Guzzo, an assistant professor of sociology at Kutztown University in Pennsylvania, says many women "are probably not choosing never to have children, so much as … they're not forming relationships because they're investing in their education and careers."

...•Women with a college degree are experiencing what the bureau calls a "delayer boom" — they're having babies at later ages than other women and having fewer children overall. _USAToday

Here are other fascinating findings from the census report:

Women with less than a high school education had three times as many births as women with at least a bachelor's degree. Eighty-three percent of women 25 to 34 with less than a high school education had given birth at twice the percentage recorded by women with at least a bachelor's degree (42 percent).

...-- By age 40 to 44, white non-Hispanic women (20.6 percent) were more likely to be childless than Hispanic women (12.4 percent), black women (17.2 percent) and Asian women (15.9 percent). Black women were also more likely to be childless than Hispanic women. Asian women did not differ from black or Hispanic women. _ChicagoTribune

Women who narrow their focus to just their careers often unwittingly fritter away any chance for motherhood they may have had.

I know...that not being a mother means there is a part of me which remains unused, a love that will be forever unexpressed. I know that what any mother describes as the most profound love she has ever known is, to me, a locked door — there is so much love I will never be able to give, wisdom and understanding I cannot share, shelter and solace I cannot provide.

...My regrets will always linger. My life is a poorer place for not having children, and I am less of a woman for not being a mother. There is a vast realm of experience and growth I will never know. _DailyMail

Women who have blindly shut themselves off from motherhood in their fertile youth often try to project an attitude of indifference and lack of regret to the outside world. But inside herself, she must face the truth of the things she will never know, and the love she will never share.

On the larger scale, for the western world this means that too many her most intelligent women will never have children. Less intelligent and uneducated women will take their place in the birthing wards, and their likely less intelligent children will fill the classrooms, playgrounds, and public spaces of the future.

The US has its poor and uneducated Mexican immigrants, Europe has its poor and uneducated immigrants from MENA, SS Africa, and Asia. The demographic displacement plays out sans fanfare or announcement, to general public indifference.

But the longterm fallout will be severe, as the average population IQ sinks below the level necessary for a complex society to sustain its infrastructure.

What Black Culture?

SF Gate says blacks are leaving San Francisco faster than any other major US city, citing “substandard schools, a lack of affordable housing and the dearth of jobs and black culture”. _BelmontClub

Modern black American culture is one of resentment, entitlement, unrealistic expectations, and simmering hatred and violence toward a European infrastructure that occasionally breaks out into full-scale insurrection.

But Wretchard of Belmont Club has happened upon a very interesting US demographic phenomenon, which may have long reaching repercussions:

...will demographic trends coupled with mobility eventually mean the end of identity politics based on racial lines? When does a black “multicultural” candidate essentially become just another politician in which ethnic identity means little or nothing in comparison with his economic and policy positions? Will the Democratic “Big Tent” need re-architecturing? What will the impact of these shifts be on the Republican Party? Granted that these are long-term trends, what will these developments mean for 2012? _BelmontClub

If blacks are fleeing San Francisco for the city's lack of "black culture", why are so many blacks running away from areas of high proportionate black population toward areas with lower proportions of blacks?

Increasingly blacks are moving to places with small black populations. Just 2 percent of the black population growth in the last decade occurred in counties that have traditionally been black population centers, while 20 percent has occurred in counties where only a tiny fraction of the population had been black. _NYT

Smarter and more capable blacks are looking for opportunity -- not "black culture." To a large extent, it is "black culture" which is dragging much of the black population down and promoting underachievement on top of underachievement.

As for San Francisco, the city's fringe leftist governments have been destroying the livability of the peninsula for medium income persons for decades now. Why is it that the mainstream press only takes notice when an "officially sanctioned disadvantaged group" is affected?

San Francisco's black population has dropped faster than that of any other large U.S. city's. It went from 13.4 percent in 1970 to an estimated 6.5 percent in 2005, according to the census. Nationally, African Americans make up 12.1 percent of the population.

...In San Francisco, the number of African Americans in very-low-income households has increased, the number of black-owned businesses has declined, and African Americans have the lowest home ownership rates, according to the report.

About 24 percent of black people in the city are living in homes that need severe or moderate repairs, and African Americans make up nearly half of the residents in public housing. _SFChron

Al Fin demographers are predicting severe turmoil for SF Bay area political power structures within the next decade or two, due to a general breakdown of economic viability across leftist-administered cities, states, and counties in the US. When the economy crashes, the burghers must often sit down with persons of questionable politics but verifiable capital and job creation skills.

Give California and the Bay area another ten years or so of self-destruction before they reach the end of their manic plunge into an idological wasteland.

Programme for International Student Assessment Scores

These graphs were compiled by Steve Sailer and published at VDare. The top graph illustrates US PISA scores by ethnicity. The graph below provides the 2009 PISA reading score by various geographical (and sometimes ethnic) groups.

VDare
PISA scores provide a fair but imperfect proxy for IQ scores.

Steve Sailer explains in the VDare article how difficult it is to obtain scores from US educational authorities which are broken down by race. Political correctness prohibits looking at population scores with a clear head or unbiased eye.

Perhaps that will not always be the case.

H/T Half Sigma

Motorcycle Plus Guns? Taliban as Young Man's Fantasy

Source H/T ReverseSpins

If you join the Taliban you can ride motorcycles, shoot guns, and if you get killed you go straight to paradise to be served in every way by 72 pure virgins of your Koran-fevered dreams. If you are a young man growing up in dirt-poor, war-ravaged Afghanistan, looking for adventure -- what are you going to do? The Taliban effort is well funded by outside Islamic funding agencies. Iran is an important provider of resources.

KABUL -- At least five Iranian companies in Afghanistan's capital are using their offices covertly to finance Taliban militants in provinces near Kabul, according to a Sunday Times investigation.

Afghan intelligence and Taliban sources have told the newspaper that the firms, set up in the past six months, provide cash for a network of district Taliban treasurers to pay battlefield expenses and bonuses for killing the enemy and destroying their vehicles.

The Iranian companies win contracts to supply materials and logistics to Afghans involved in reconstruction. The money often comes in the form of aid from foreign donors.

Profits are transferred through poorly regulated Afghan banks — including Kabul Bank, which is partly owned by President Hamid Karzai’s brother Mahmood — to Tehran and Dubai.

From these countries, the money returns to Afghanistan through the informal Islamic banking system known as hawala to be dispersed to the Taliban. _Source

Source

The huge "youth bulge" seen in the population pyramid of Afghanistan -- and several other dirt-poor Islamic and third world countries -- suggests that the Islamic wars of Asia and Africa will be "forever wars", at least through most of this century. Demography is destiny in many ways.

Debt and Demography as Destiny: Emerging Markets Not Immune

Image Source

Many analysts are predicting that the emerging markets (BRICs etc) will own the 21st century, due to a superior budget balance, with far less debt than the more developed nations. But these analysts may be omitting some of the most important elements in their analyses.

Already in the decade before the 2008–2009 economic crisis, a number of factors favored considerably faster economic growth in the emerging market economies than in the industrialized countries. In contrast to the slow-growing and aging populations in the industrialized countries, emerging market economies are characterized by younger and faster growing populations. At the same time, savings rates in non-Japan Asia have considerably exceeded those in the G-7, while the emerging market economies are taking full advantage of the potential to grow rapidly through simply catching up technologically to the industrialized countries.

In the years immediately ahead, one must expect that the emerging market economies will retain many of the advantages that have favored their rapid growth in the recent past. There is now every reason to expect that these advantages will be amplified by the sounder public finances that characterize the emerging market economies. And there is also every reason to expect that, as they become even more important in the global economy, the emerging markets will become increasingly more vocal in pressing their case for their representation in international economic organizations like the International Monetary Fund to more fairly reflect their relative importance. _American

The author above rightly contrasts the prospects of "slow-growing and aging populations" with those of "younger and faster growing populations." And yet he forgets to look at another aspect of demography: intelligence. If the population average IQ is below 90, the long-term prospects for that country are not good -- unless it possesses a high-IQ market dominant minority.

So, looking at the author's "circle of favour" above, one would have to cross off South Africa. One would also have to cast a jaundiced eye at Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, and Turkey -- all with average population IQs below 90. The future of those nations depends in large part upon how they choose to treat their market-dominant minorities, and how they deal with internal violence and corruption.

Although it is immensely wealthy in terms of minerals and energy, Russia, also, must be ejected from the "circle of favour," due to its collapsing demographics combined with its ominous trends back toward a Soviet-style centralisation of power, and reversion to tyranny.

China's economic miracle has been based almost entirely upon exports to Europe and North America. As those export markets have cooled, China has attempted to create internal markets out of nothing, building huge empty cities, apartment complexes, and shopping malls. As all of that wasted wealth (on top of the wasteful and corrupt state-owned enterprises) takes its toll on the nation's economy, economic stresses will likely lead to additional catastrophic decision-making by central planners.

South Korea and Taiwan score well economically, and on average population IQ. Both nations are, however, sitting under significant military threats from close neighbors. In addition, both nations are prone to the same demographic shrinkage that most affluent nations are prone to.

The US is being stripped for salvage by its ruling class. Only a significant re-revolution and return to constitutional ideals -- and a savage disciplining and down-sizing of governments at all levels -- can save the US from its designed dismantling. The US is likely to be dismantled, in other words.

After it becomes clear to the rest of the world that the US under Obama Pelosi is truly becoming a "paper tiger", significant shifting of alliances may well occur. But stability is not likely, until the human technological infrastructure evolves.

Demography of Eur-Apocalypse

The old European is likely to live comfortably, to go abroad on vacations and have plenty of time for hobbies and entertainments. And to be child free, or perhaps one or two indifferently pampered children, if they can find the time. The new European is likely to be named Mohammed, to have twice as many children, if not twice as many wives, and to spend less time entertaining himself at operas and on vacations, and more time building a future for his family.
_Source

In a democracy, he who sires and raises more future voters than his neighbor will be the father of the future. But where violent movements such as Islamism and Islamic Supremacism are involved, just a small minority of citizens is enough to irrevocably alter the future of a society.

Muslim areas will expand as black holes of crime, governed by no police but Muslim police. There bombs will be built, rabid sermons delivered, stolen cars dropped off at chop shops and drugs smuggled through for distribution outside its borders. Murders, gang rapes, and every sort of crime will happen there without knowledge or recourse. These black holes will also pour forth a constant outcry of racism. And every now and then when the mood strikes them, the "youth" will pour forth to burn and loot. Source

As cars, neighborhoods, and large parts of cities burn, so does any hope of a peaceful and prosperous future for society at large. Peace with the violent disaffected inside-outsiders will only come with surrender of enlightened western rule of law, and equality under the law. Under the new regime of "peace", the majority is held hostage to the violent and intolerant minority.

As long as the European birth rate keeps falling, and Europe's borders remain open, and its politicians remain unwilling to begin exporting its former guest workers back to their countries of origin, Europe is doomed. The date may be unknown, but the trajectory is all too unfortunately clear.

When it comes to Muslims, Europe, Israel, America and every country infected with the Islamist plague retains only one real option, to deport them or to surrender to them. _FPM

In the Demography Contest, Islam is Kicking Western Butt

Demography is destiny. If the prosperous developed nations of the world decide to stop having children, the people that shaped those nations will disappear from the earth, and be replaced by other people with a, perhaps, less savoury history.

A recent Fjordman Report discusses this issue most bluntly--in the only way in which it is worth being discussed. Al Fin has posted on this issue many times, but this is the first time I have seen a well-known European blogger discuss the issue so plainly. Here is just a taste of Fjordman's excellent report:

Japan has a declining and ageing population, Yemen and Pakistan have booming populations. Does anybody seriously believe that it would be “good” for the Japanese to open their doors to millions of Muslims from Yemen? “Do you have any education?” “Yes, I know the Koran by heart and can say ‘Death to the infidels!’ in ten different ways.” “Splendid, just what we need here in Japan. Can you start tomorrow on developing a new line of plasma TV screens for SONY?”

When it comes to stagnating populations and Muslim immigration, the problems are not nearly as damaging as the cure.

Among political right-wingers, there is frequently a belief that what is good for business interests is good for the country. The problem is, this isn’t always true. There is sometimes a gap between the short-term interests of Big Business for cheap labor from Third World countries, and the long-term interests of the country as a whole. You cannot compete with cheap commodities from Third World countries unless you lower the general wages to Third World levels.

A few decades ago, Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew realized that Singapore could never win the worldwide competition to offer cheap labor. He decided instead that the country was to become a high value-added producer. To Lee, that meant wages had to be high enough to encourage Singapore’s businessmen to invest in labor-saving technology. To raise Singapore’s salaries he had to make sure that local wages wouldn’t be undercut by migrants. Yes, you could pay an unskilled Bangladeshi $400 dollars a month. But in that case you had to pay the state another $400 a month.

In Europe, the one nation that has proved to be most successful in technology, ”Nokia nation” Finland, is also perhaps the one country within the EU that has accepted the least amount of immigration. Today, this small Nordic nation boasts a thriving hi-tech economy ranked the most competitive in the world and the best educated citizenry of all the industrialized countries. Neighboring Sweden, in contrast, with the largest per capita immigration in Europe, is in serious economic decline, and the only thing growing seems to be the crime rates.

Ethnically homogeneous nations enjoy a “trust bonus” which reduces the amount of conflict. There is little evidence that any theoretical “diversity” bonus from immigration will cancel out the loss of this “trust bonus.” South Korea and Japan are among the world leaders in technology. They are both ethnically homogeneous nations. Even China, which does have significant ethnic minorities, could soon be more ethnically homogeneous than many so-called Western nations. There will be no lack of “diversity” in the 21st century, but there could be a lack of functioning, coherent nation states. Maybe the West will “celebrate diversity” until our countries fall apart, and global leadership will be transferred to East Asia.

Yes, it is true that the ability to attract ambitious and talented scientists from other countries has benefited the USA in the past, and given it an edge over Europe. However, it is not without dangers to “celebrate diversity” in a country as diverse as the US. Americans should try celebrating what binds them together instead, or they may wake up one day and discover that they don’t really have a lot in common. What then for the United States?

Anthony Browne notes that Britain “became the largest economic power in the world in the nineteenth century, in the almost complete absence of immigration to these isles. Japan became the world’s second largest economy after the second world war in the almost total absence of immigration.” “Britain can never compete on the basis of low wages with low cost countries such as China for the simple reason that the cost of living is so much higher, and it is a mistake to try. Although cheap labour immigration may have staved off the demise of those industries for a short while, it also compromised them by encouraging them to go down the cheap labour route, and discouraging them from going up the high productivity/value added route.”

The revered former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, stated in a testimony given to the U.S. Senate: “Although discovery of new technologies is to some degree a matter of luck, we know that human activities do respond to economic incentives. A relative shortage of workers should increase the incentives for developing labor-saving technologies and may actually spur technological development.”

Robert Rowthorn, academic economist, criticizes the claim, frequently repeated by Tony Blair’s Labour government since it took office in 1997, that “if we don’t have immigration, we won’t have economic growth.” According to Rowthorn, “if you repeat something often enough, you can perhaps make people believe it.” There is no evidence “that large-scale immigration generates large-scale economic benefits for the existing population as a whole. On the contrary, all the research suggests that the benefits are either close to zero, or negative” as unskilled migrants and their families often are net consumers of taxes.

“Immigration can’t solve the pensions crisis, nor solve the problem of an ageing population, as its advocates so often claim. It can, at most, delay the day of reckoning, because, of course, immigrants themselves grow old, and they need pensions.” “The injection of large numbers of unskilled workers into the economy does not benefit the bulk of the population to any great extent. It benefits the nanny-and housecleaner-using classes; it benefits employers who want to pay low wages; but it does not benefit indigenous, unskilled Britons.” “While Britain has always had immigration, the recent influx is totally without precedent in modern times. Relative to population, the scale of immigration is now much greater than during any period since the Anglo-Saxon and Danish invasions over a thousand years ago.”

Rowthorn also points out, correctly, that “refugees and others granted special leave to remain under the asylum rules account for only 10 per cent of immigration to Britain. Most permanent immigration consists of people who are economic migrants together with their dependants.” Most of them aren’t people fleeing persecution.

There is much more at the Fjordman Report, on the GatesofVienna blog.

Very slowly, the hardworking citizens of the developed nations are beginning to realise that their politicians are selling them out. Some of these politicians are susceptible to the voters, and should be removed from office. Others, within the EU bureaucracy, have insulated themselves from voters, and may have to be dragged--kicking and screaming--from their well paid sinecured positions of arbitrary power.

It is nothing less than a question of the survival of western civilisation--the most advanced and enlightened civilisation the human world has ever known. The alternatives are dismal throwbacks to more brutal and barbaric times. Wake up, western world. You have not much more time to decide.