Danger of Collapse Contingent on Obama Policies Continuing

First of all, a healthy growing economy means increasing complexity (green curve). This means that the critical complexity (blue curve), which measures how much complexity a system can sustain without imploding, increases. Every time a system is in a state of crisis or transition both curves become bumpy (see the bump corresponding to the dot com crisis in 2000). The magnitude of the bumps indicates the severity of the crisis. What is apparent from the plot, however, is that the current crisis is the most severe in 25 years – it sets the clock back 10-12 years, when we registered similar values of complexity. However, what is more alarming is the slope of both curves – it is negative and with a value not registered before. Basically, a negative slope points to a shrinking economy.

Complexity Trends

The second alarming point is that when the complexity of a system reaches its corresponding critical threshold (critical complexity) the system in question becomes very fragile and therefore vulnerable. Its structure becomes weak and unable to absorb any increases in uncertainty, inefficiency, and especially, shocks. In the case of the US, this is precisely what is happening. If we take a closer look at the last few years, extrapolating trend, we see that the curves will meet around 2017-2018. This situation is illustrated below. _Forbes

American Collapse Under Obama Policies
There is a maximum level of complexity above which society breaks down, and there is a minimum level of complexity, below which society breaks down. If a society is designed properly it is able to increase in complexity as it grows, maintaining a safe margin between the upper and lower limits of workable complexity.

What does this mean? It means that over the next 5-6 years the complexity of the US will reach unmanageable levels and the entire system will essentially be out of control. Obviously, this statement is based on the assumption that no major adjustments and/or (extreme) events take place to change the trend line. However, it is also true that current crisis is exposing the inability of modern politics to react to disruptive events. Consequently, the assumption seems to be pretty realistic. Moreover, very large and complex economies are characterized by immense inertia, which means that changes of any nature require a very, very long time to effect.

But the most alarming point is this. In our analysis we are not looking only at the economy of the US. The analysis is holistic. It embraces also the society, environment, education, the health system, etc.—in other words, “everything.” This means we’re looking at the US as country, not just as an economy. In our previous blogs we have pointed to the fact that even though many parts of the global economy are in a state of crisis, this is not a crisis of the economy. It is a crisis of values, morals, of living beyond one’s means, and many other elements, which ultimately, are reflected in the state of the economy. In fact, the economy and the society are one and must be analyzed as such. Everything is interconnected. The economy is only one important part of a huge and dynamic network, which we understand very poorly.

Our result is most alarming due to very this fact. You can bailout a bank or a carmaker, but how can you “bail out an entire country”? _American Danger of Collapse Under Obama

Obama's policies have been based upon a radical vision of transforming America from a resilient private sector based society, to a brittle and unsustainable public sector based society. Obama's agenda is good for the few who are able to siphon away wealth and power from the contracting private sector. It is also good for the enemies of America whose global schemes had been hampered by American power.

Here is an interesting look at "what will break and what won't" from Nassim Taleb in The Economist:

The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive, weakened by deficits, politicians’ misalignment of interests and the magnification of errors by centralised systems. The pre-modernist robust model of city-states and statelings will prevail, with obsessive fiscal prudence. Currencies might still exist, but, after the disastrous experience of America’s Federal Reserve, they will peg to some currency without a government, such as gold.

...The world will face severe biological and electronic pandemics, another gift from globalisation.

Religious practice will experience a revival, seen as a conveyor of robust heuristics, cultural values and rituals. Science will produce smaller and smaller gains in the non-linear domain, in spite of the enormous resources it will consume; instead it will start focusing on what it cannot—and should not—do. Finally, what is now called academic economics will be treated with the same disrespect that rigorous (and practical) minds currently have for Derrida-style post-modernist verbiage. _Economist Taleb

There is more at the link above, but what is interesting to Al Fin analysts is how Taleb underestimates the perfidy of the current leadership of the USA, and other leading nations. Modern leaders are much like the captain of the doomed Costa Concordia. They will steer the ship onto the rocks, then take the first opportunity to abandon ship, passengers, and crew to whatever fate awaits them.

If Obama's policies can be reversed, the US private sector can likely recover in time to help bail out the other failing economies of the world. But reversing the policies of a massive and unwieldy government such as the US government, is difficult -- if not impossible -- to do over a short time period. The best we can hope for is mitigation. But will it be enough?

Wait and see. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Evans Wadongo Would Make a Much Better President

He [Evans Wadongo] has no time for Kenya's political class, accusing them of "wanting people to remain poor so that they can stay in power". _PO

Very like the US political class of the past 2 years.

Physorg
If we were to choose between Kenyans for president of the US, perhaps it would be better to choose one who has demonstrated the ability to solve real world problems, and a genuine desire and competence to help people.

As a child growing up in west Kenya, Wadongo struggled to do his homework by kerosene lamp. He was caned at school if his family ran out of fuel for the lamp, and he permanently damaged his eyesight by sitting over the smoky fumes when they did have kerosene.

But his father, whom he describes as a teacher who was "very strict" and "my greatest inspiration", saw that he completed his studies and made it into university.

Once there, Wadongo started wondering how to improve conditions for children in communities similar to his home village -- and there are many. Though Kenya is one of the richest countries in east Africa, more than half the population lives on less than a dollar a day.

The young man had always wanted to help people but did not have the stomach to go into medicine, so he opted for engineering. He was only 19 when he invented his first solar lamp after using part of his student loan to buy what he needed.

"Then, I never thought it would take off on this scale. I just wanted to take one to my grandma," he recalled.

Some 15,000 lamps have been turned out since production started in 2004, and Wadongo says his goal is to hit 100,000 by 2015.

"I started in the village where I grew up and I saw kids going from primary into high school," he told AFP.

He has no time for Kenya's political class, accusing them of "wanting people to remain poor so that they can stay in power".

For Wadongo, the lamps are not an end in themselves, but rather "a way to lift people out of poverty." _PO

Clever problem solvers are far more in demand than clever con men and jive artists, such as many members of the US political class. Society should aim to produce far more actual problem solvers.

A Downward Spiral with Obama at the Wheel

The US EPA has invaded Texas in an attempt to energy-starve the Lone Star State into submission. Talk of secession is beginning to circulate once again.

The US government is in no position to lecture anyone on the topic of competency, as the Obama Depression probes the depths of joblessness.

A new batch of documentary films are exposing government schools for their corruption and incompetency. Generations of students have already been lost. How many more will be sacrificed to government ineptitude?

No matter how bad government schools get, you simply cannot shut them down. No matter how bad union teachers get, you cannot fire them. It is a Catch-22 for those who pay their taxes -- and ultimately pay for the corrupt system.

Corruption in the America of Obama Pelosi is beginning to approach the corruption in Russia -- one of the most corrupt nations on Earth. No wonder Obama wants much closer political and economic relations with Russia.

If Obama can stack the Supreme Court with a few more hand picked statists, it will become difficult to distinguish the downward trajectories of the two nations.

Truly, it is amateur hour in Washington DC these days. America is sinking in a quagmire of debt and deception.

The US continues to lose jobs, and Obama hasn't a clue what to do about it. So he does exactly the wrong things.

Under Obama Pelosi, the US is experiencing an unprecedented divisiveness and sense that the nation is being mismanaged out of an innate incompetency residing in Washington DC. If you add the "radical seed" component to the Obama Pelosi plan, you can see more clearly that such a profound level of incompetence could not have occurred totally by accident.

Obama Pelosi has been busy inserting an autopilot into the machinery of government, just in case. This autopilot will make sure that the government continues to run itself into the ground with the same Obama Pelosi level and style of designed incompetence -- regardless of who gets elected to fill the figurehead elected offices and political appointments of government. The ruin is becoming irrevocable. As some of us knew it would.

Hyper Inflation From the Bubble President

Obama himself is incredibly insubstantial in terms of knowledge, experience, and competence. He can best be viewed as a potent symbol and flashpoint for multiple dynamic and powerful social, political, ideological, cultural, and economic forces on the national and international levels. As a figurehead and facade, therefore, Obama is quite effective. It is only when wise and competent action is called for, that figureheads begin to show their core inadequacy.

Most members of the general and voting public have a caricatured view of how the world works and what is involved in administering a gigantic national phenomenon like the 21st century US. For many younger and less intelligent voters, a symbolic figurehead may seem the appropriate type of person to serve as head of state. But in the absence of decisive and informed decision-making from the top of the hierarchy, a multitude of competing bureaucratic kingpins will create an unholy cacophony of governmental destruction.

The current credit crunch and deflationary cycle we are experiencing can be written off to a number of factors, many of which were described by Kondratieff and others (via Dennis Mangan). But whether a timely recovery from this long-expected deflation will occur depends largely on economic decisions that will be made by the incoming Obama reich.

Here are a few of the shoes yet to drop:

1) Commercial Real Estate is going to face the same challenges that the residential housing market went through and continues to go through - except it will be worse. This shoe has implications for banks and insurance companies as well as the commercial real estate developers, both public and private.

2) There will be at least one automobile manufacturer (GM) bankruptcy by early spring. If this shoe drops, a second automobile bankruptcy (Chrysler) should follow shortly thereafter. And, a European automobile manufacturer could also go into Administration as well.

3) Corporate pension plans will show a big problem. Specifically, most, if not all, corporate pension funds are significantly underfunded and will require companies to shore up those pensions using up vitally needed cash.

4) Private Equity will suffer severely as funding continues to be very difficult and operations of the businesses will be impacted by the recession and will require capital. In addition, the IPO market will provide no relief for P/E to monetize investments and exit businesses.

5) Hedge Funds will continue to face redemptions and underwhelming performance. This will continue to pressure the markets and reduce liquidity. It will also impact the brokerage industry.

6) Municipalities all across the country will face huge budget deficits and will be forced to cut services and raise taxes. A major municipal default will occur before year end.

7) More small and mid-sized bank failures will occur...these will be the flip flops of the shoe storm.

8) The housing depression will continue as prices continue to fall and demand for homes does not materialize even with all the government programs being put forth. Housing inventory will rise to historic levels. at least one major homebuilder will go bankrupt.

9) There will be at least one, more likely many, major retail bankrupcty and at least one major commercial retail landlord, REIT, will go bankrupt.

10) Warren Buffets Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) will face the slings and arrows of the ongoing economic weakness and financial crisis. The stock will be cut down to size - maybe $50,000/share or so. Having just won the CEO of the Year award for 2008, which he probably deserved many years ago, it would only be fit for the company to show its vulnerabilities, which believe it or not it has, and succumb to the forces that have impacted every company in every business that Berkshire Hathaway owns or operates. _SeekingAlpha

I don't know about Buffet's company being re-valued, but I wouldn't be surprised. I don't really care. There are worse problems on the backburner. Bubbles within bubbles, threatening to burst.

The Obama phenomenon is clearly a hyper-inflated bubble, aided by Oprah and the national and international news and entertainment media. But the Obama bubble is riding on a much more ominous bubble, the bubble of the US Treasury. The deflationary risk posed by the impending bursting of the latter bubble puts all of the plans of the Obama / Pelosi monetary hyper-inflationary plans at risk. There is no simple formula for balancing catastrophic deflationary processes with deranged hyper-inflationary budgetary policies.

Obama and Pelosi appear to favour the hyper-inflationary approach of recovering from a recession, credit crunch, and de-leveraging of the financial system. They are in the company of a large number of academic, governmental, media and think tank economists in promoting a huge injection of liquidity into the the monetary system. It is an opportunity to spend into the trillions, that they have been waiting for all their lives. They simply cannot bring themselves to walk away. They believe they have Keynes on their side.

For Al Fin readers who want to have some sort of wealth at the end of this government-amplified and prolonged destructive process, think outside of normal investments. Some businesses will do very well if they are not nationalised or otherwise confiscated, hamstrung by regulations, or taxed to death by increasingly desperate governments at the local, state, and national levels. More on those businesses later.

Think about the various systems of barter and off the books trade that may be available. Think about precious metals in various forms. Think about necessities for you, for your neighbors, for society at large. Consider the cascading dynamics of failure as they will play out in your community. Remember, we are a few generations away from the tough people who survived the 1930's Keynes/Roosevelt-prolonged depression. People are much softer now, less competent in basic skills, and far more dependent on governments for even simple things, and soon to become even more dependent on governments under Obama / Pelosi.

But America in 2008 was not the America of 1930. There was never any danger of mass runs on the banks. The vast majority of Americans are of the opinion, rightly in my view, that the fed would not allow the banking system to collapse, an opinion that Bernanke's monetary policy has strongly reinforced. The danger is that by flooding the system with money, Bernanke will trigger a wave of inflation. Considering his unwavering devotion to the Keynesian faith, I think this is a highly likely outcome. To top it off, the crisis was the outcome of Keynesian policies that have given Obama the excuse to massively increase government spending. I think the results are going to be pretty ugly. _SeekingAlpha

This is not climate catastrophe, although if the world cools as recent data suggests it might, climate will make things worse. This is not peak oil, although under Obama / Pelosi, "political peak oil" is highly likely. This is not some obscure Mayan prophecy or other hocus pocus. It is the combination of incompetent people ( who happen to possess the hubris of deities) in places of power, with influence over a cyclic economic process that requires a deft yet delicate hand at the wheel.

Be prepared.
Previously published on Al Fin

Help Us, Homeschool - Won - Kenobi: You're Our Only Hope

US voters chose "Hope and Change", but unfortunately they are about to receive a level of corruption and power politics unheard of, before the recent exposure of Illinois and Chicago - style mob politics. Obama owes organised labour (and thus organised crime) much of his success. He cannot afford to offend labour unions, including teachers' unions that are responsible for the abysmal failure of US government education. Obama will do nothing to enlarge school choice, not even for the millions of young African Americans who supported him throughout his campaign and election. That leaves homeschooling as one of the few hopes for students who want to avoid the government education cesspool:

But there is a ray of hope for those who favor freedom of choice in education: home schooling. A report just out in Education Next (by Milton Gaither) shows that in the face of the continuing failure of the public school system and the roadblocks to freedom erected by the public school special interest groups, parents are increasingly home schooling their children. From 1999 to 2003, the number of children being home-schooled jumped by 29 percent (from 850,000 to 1.1 million). It is currently estimated that there are nearly 2 million home-schooled children, with some researchers putting the current figure as high as 2.5 million.

Especially striking is the growth of home schooling among African American households. The U.S. Department of Education reported 103,000 black children were being home-schooled in 2003.

...No doubt the public school monopoly will continue to use its force (fueled by millions of dollars in union dues) to keep its stranglehold on American education. We can anticipate major efforts to stop home schooling in its tracks. Here in California, Justice H. Walter Croskey ruled last year that home schooling was illegal unless the parents had teaching credentials (as if that were any indication of teaching competence!) The ruling was reversed, but it is just a matter of time before another move is made. However, the millions of home school parents are getting well organized, and have proven capable of defending their rights. _WashTimes

Obama has chosen mob - politics, the political style of corrupt Illinois and Chicago. He has declared war on independents - thinking parents and small business. Given that some of Obama's best friends are terrorists and mobsters, none of this should come as a surprise.

The take-home message: look out for yourselves and your families, network with like-minded individuals, and make yourselves heard. Do not expect the government under the narcissist-elect to be of any help whatsoever.

All the PhDs, JDs, MBAs Cannot Make Capital Markets Work, But Sarah Palin Can

Sarah Palin is quite special, and quite ordinary--for America--at the same time. The true story of Palin contains the reason for America's ability to absorb multiple blows that would have ended most other governments and economies. It is the resilience of Americans like Palin, the sheer energy, optimism in the face of difficulties, and perseverance that allows America to bounce back in the face of multiple overwhelming problems and threats.

Provincial America depends on the initiative of ordinary people to get through the day..... Americans pay for most of their school costs out of local taxes, and levy those taxes on themselves. In small towns, many public agencies, including fire protection and emergency medical assistance, depend almost entirely on volunteers. People who tax themselves, and give their own time and money for services on which communities depend, are not easily cowed by the federal government or by large corporations.

Palin's career may look like a poor imitation of a Preston Sturges script, but films such as Hail the Conquering Hero (1944) struck a chord with Americans precisely because the character type of the ordinary man or woman who takes on entrenched interests is instantly recognizable in America.

Palin really did take on the American oil companies and turn the scoundrels out of office. Her predecessor, Frank Murkowski, appointed her to the state oil and gas commission in the apparent belief that a small-town mayor and former beauty queen would rubber-stamp corrupt deals between the state and the Big Oil companies.

Shades of Jimmy Stewart in Mr Smith Goes to Washington, Palin ran against Murkowski and took his job. That does not qualify her to be president, to be sure, but it does show cunning and strength of character. Palin is qualified for high office by temperament if not by education, and is preferable to candidates whose education has made no improvement on their characters.

....One doesn't see demonstrations by wronged peasants in the small towns of America. There never were peasants - American farmers always were entrepreneurs - and the locals avenge injury by taking over their local governments, which have sufficient authority to make a difference. At the capillary level, school boards, the Parent Teachers' Association, self-administered religious organizations and volunteer organizations incubate a political class entirely different from anything to be found in Asia. There are tens of thousands of Sarah Palins lurking in the minor leagues of American politics, and they are the guarantors of market probity.

...Twenty-eight percent of China's population falls in the age cohort of 39-64 years, when individuals must put away most of their retirement savings. By 2025, the proportion will rise to 35%. (By contrast, America has 32% of its population in the 39-64 cohort today, but it will fall to 30% by 2025). _AsiaTimes

Europe's problem is similar to China's. Europe--and Russia--was populated by peasants at one time. The peasant mentality still persists in European and Asian countries--the lack of independent thinking which imagines that it can actually make a difference.

Sarah Palin has an impressive record of achievement which promises to grow stronger every year, whether or not she is elected Vice President next month. Unlike entitlist Barak Obama--whose followers hint that they may riot if their messianic leader is not elected--Palin inspires people to want to work for and earn what they achieve. That spirit of setting goals and working hard to achieve them is what caused America to rise to the top of the economic world in the late 19th century, and to the top of the political and military world after the end of WWII. Most Americans--like Sarah Palin--do not whine and quit just because things are not going well.

The entitlement mentality that controls most of the polities of the world--and is knocking at the door on Wall street and Pennsylvania Avenue--has not yet completely taken over main street America. Just the fact of opinion polls suggesting a high likelihood of the entitlist winning the presidency, is having a depressing effect on markets recently.

Because if America goes over entirely to entitlement thinking, the thing that once made America special and has continued to keep America on top, will be smothered and in danger of dying. Understanding that an American cold gives the world pneumonia, one might begin to apprehend what would happen to the rest of the world should America's situation suddenly become much worse than a mere cold.

300 million Barak Obama's in one country would be an epic disaster of narcissistic top-heaviness and absence of competence. 300 million Sarah Palin's, on the other hand, would carry on much as America has carried on for centuries. Working, planning, innovating, reforming, worshiping, raising families, fulfilling their contracts, keeping their word, and living within their means.

BO might be a good president of Zimbabwe or Venezuela--he might represent an improvement over their current leaders. As president of the US, BO is simply a suicidal gesture thrown in the face of ordinary Americans by wastrels who never in their best efforts could make capital markets work.

More: Why European banks are likely in much more trouble than American banks

Can Obama Be a Messiah to Black Males?

There is a sense of optimism among many US blacks regarding the so-far successful candidacy of Barak Obama. This ecstatic burst of utopianism extends well beyond the US black community into Europe--even to Islamic terror organisations--but it is US blacks whose hopes are elevated to the most rapturous levels.

If Obama could do anything to help black males in the US, perhaps it would be worth it to elect him president just for that. What are the challenges?

In examining graduation rates, the report finds a national graduation rate for black males (47 percent) that is 28 percentage points lower than the graduation rate for white males (75 percent). In ten states, the difference in graduation rates for black males and white males is 30 percentage points or more...In addition to low graduation rates, black males also have "consistently low educational attainment levels, are more chronically unemployed and underemployed, are less healthy and have access to fewer health care resources, die much younger, and are many times more likely to be sent to jail for periods significantly longer than males of other racial/ethnic groups," according to the report. _Source_via_JoanneJacobs

As a group, black males are the chronic statistical laggards of US society. Can Barak Obama do anything at all to help them? The problem is vast and begins at a very early age.

In the country as a whole, the number of Black students in Special Education classes is disproportionately high and the number in Gifted/Talented programs is disproportionately low. The number of Black students, particularly Black male students, who receive out-of-school suspensions and are expelled is also disproportionately high. _Source_via_JoanneJacobs

A quick look at the chart above shows that as bad as young black males are doing in school, their sisters--born of the same parents, raised in the same homes, and eating the same foods--are actually doing fairly well.

Why are black girls doing reasonably well by comparison? Black girls, in contrast to the boys, get pretty good grades, go to college at decent rates and graduate from college at very good rates, earning degrees as twice the rate of men. _Source_via_JoanneJacobs

Black males are staggeringly over-represented in the prison population--44% of prisoners, and only 5% or so of the population (black males of prison age). The overall IQ average for American blacks is 85. That is 1 standard deviation below the overall mean of roughly 100. It very possible that the black male average IQ is even less than the overall US black average IQ, looking at comparative life success.

We know that executive function (EF) is more important than IQ for life success, although EF lacks a comparably accepted metric to IQ, so it is more difficult to compare EF statistics. EF can be improved by training (Posner, Rothbart), which should be done not much later than age 6. Even so, EF--like IQ--is highly heritable, so that there are limits to what training can do. Still, better trained than not.

Finally, if Barak Obama becomes US President next January, will the IQ's and EF's of black males magically and instantly normalise? Will we see abrupt drops in criminal and delinquent behaviour from black males? Will black males suddenly begin succeeding in school--from kindergarten through college? Will the exaggerated strut of young black males suddenly have a full complement of efficacy and competence backing it up?

Probably not. Not immediately, and not for a very long time. Then what will become of all of the magical expectations floating around the messianic candidacy of Barak Obama?

Obama has no substantive achievements, no particular experience or accomplishments to prepare him for the challenges he would face as chief executive of the world's only superpower. But never mind all that. Born of a white mother, raised largely by a white family, and only absorbing the victimist culture of black America secondhand--what has prepared Obama to pull black males out of the incredibly deep hole they are in?

Good Intentions and Smooth Talk: When Psychological Neotenates Elect Themselves

Will Americans be electing a psychological neotenate as US President this November? As time goes by, the odds of electing someone who has never actually had to prove themselves in the real world grows larger. At least Bill Clinton and George W. Bush had been re-elected state governors--an administrative position of responsibility. Bush had flown multiple flights in particularly difficult to fly jet fighter aircraft as an air national guardsman, without crashing, and had at least some experience in the private sector before entering politics. McCain proved himself in the Navy performing as a pilot and in many other duties. What has Obama done to prove himself, other than sliding almost unopposed into his current undistinguished position?

How do you create a world of pyschological neotenates? A world where it makes sense to elect another psychological neotenate as the most powerful leader of the free world? You do just what western countries have been doing recently. Have only one or two children per family. Make the kids feel special even though you know they aren't. Teach them self esteem they have not earned. Make them feel entitled.

Having only one or two children allows parents to shower a great deal of attention upon each child. And that must be a good thing, right?

No other generations of kids have been so curried and cultivated, so pampered and primed, though primed for what exactly is a bit unclear. Children are given a voice in lots of decisions formerly not up for their consideration. "If it's your child, not you, who gets to choose your weekend brunch spot,"

...Every high school now has its battery of counselors: guidance, psychological, college. A larger and larger segment of the student population seems to bring its own psychological tics and jiggeroos to school with them: ADHD, dyslexia and other learning disabilities, various degrees of depression requiring regimens of pills and therapy sessions. Some of these defects and disabilities are the result of parents' having their children at a later age. Might others be that the children are so intensely watched over and tested that more and more defects and disabilities show up, some among them possibly imaginary?

...So often in my literature classes students told me what they "felt" about a novel, or a particular character in a novel. I tried, ever so gently, to tell them that no one cared what they felt; the trick was to discover not one's feelings but what the author had put into the book, its moral weight and its resultant power. In essay courses, many of these same students turned in papers upon which I wished to--but did not--write: "D-, Too much love in the home." I knew where they came by their sense of their own deep significance and that this sense was utterly false to any conceivable reality. Despite what their parents had been telling them from the very outset of their lives, they were not significant. Significance has to be earned, and it is earned only through achievement. Besides, one of the first things that people who really are significant seem to know is that, in the grander scheme, they are themselves really quite insignificant. __Source_via_aldaily.com

Even only children who are full of self-esteem and their own specialness, are in reality "quite insignificant." Sequestered in classrooms until their twenties or later, protected from any real responsibilities, prevented from being tested by the larger world, they are finally tossed into reality demanding everything but qualified for little or nothing.

These "special" children are turning into psychologically neotenised lawyers, politicians, journalists, judges, political activists, bureaucrats, educators, clerks, and any other occupation where they can frequently turn their feelings into a quasi-truth. Heaven helped these poor children who fall into a field where they are actually tested against reality in a meaningful way. Working physicians, engineers, IT workers, technologists and technicians, maintenance and construction workers, pilots, lab workers who are required to develop things "that work", business people who must "deliver the goods"--these are examples of people who have to go beyond their feelings and actually be competent.

There are many examples of psychologically neotenised people who got into "competence-tested" fields by mistake. They flew the plane drunk, or operated on the patient under the influence of drugs. They fudged their data, produced sloppy code, and designed buildings that fell down.

Unfortunately, parents in developed societies are turning their few progeny into more and more psychologically neotenised princes and princesses. Full of self-esteem and a sense of entitlement, they are spilling out into all occupations and fields. What have they done? Nothing. What can they do? Nothing. What are they willing to learn to do? Almost nothing. What do they want? Everything!

In November, voters in the US will have the opportunity to elect a US President who has done essentially nothing. Never flew a jet fighter or served in any type of military or national guard unit. Never operated a successful business or served in an important administrative position. Barely served half a US Senate term. Never faced re-election as US Senator. No record of achievement, legislation, or accomplishment. The very picture of a quite special psychological neotenate, sliding his way toward an important position at a time in history where challenges to western civilisation are growing critical.

Welcome to the Kindergarchy.

Refuge from Perpetual Incompetence #1: Military Option

Regular readers of Al Fin blog are familiar with the concept of psychological neoteny. The societies of western developed nations and particularly North American societies, have adopted a method of child-rearing that results in the perpetual incompetence of an idle adolescence. By age-segregating children in classrooms of indoctrination, by removing children from all responsibility and exposure to the adult world of work, western societies are creating entire generations of incompetent and narcissistic know-nothings and do-nothings.

But there are notable refuges from the world of perpetual incompetence and irrelevance--one of which is the military. In the military there is no escape from responsibility, and no excuse for not developing the competencies of your current rating and assignment. You are thrown in with persons of all ages, backgrounds, religions, ethnicities, and experiences. You are expected to learn how to do your job, and to do it professionally.

The modern military is as much about disaster relief, and providing order for rebuilding a devastated region, as it is about fighting and killing an enemy. Military members are encouraged to improve themselves, and many gain degrees while in the service, through online courses.

Joel, who is stationed in Baghdad with the 3rd Brigade, 2nd Infantry Stryker Brigade Combat Team, earned his degree through online courses and hopes to be able to watch the ceremony through an online link-up.

"A lot of it has involved slipping in homework in between missions and rest time. But there's always the unforeseen, though," Joel, 36, said Wednesday in a phone interview from Iraq. "Taking courses online gives me a sense of normalcy. ... As one class completes, I'm that much closer to being home."

According to military publications, more than 40,000 soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq have enrolled in online college courses.

Denver Post

By acquiring real world skills in a genuine world atmosphere, while still being able to earn credits and degrees online, members of the military are able to bypass the academic lobotomy that millions of on-campus university students receive every year.

While their home societies are preparing their civilian cohorts for perpetual incompetence, military members are seeing much of the world firsthand, and working side by side with people from other cultures for both peacekeeping, disaster relief, and making war.

Military members who do not make a career of the military often join reserve units or national guard units, to combine their civilian lives with continued service to their country. Career military members often retire by age 38, at which time many of them join city, county, state, or federal agencies of law enforcement or other active civil service agencies that require competent workers.

Competence is rare in a neotenous society. You have to look for it.

Once, People Like This Were Relatively Common

If western schools knew how to produce graduates with the personal competence of Richard Proenneke, there would be no need to be concerned about the violent assault against the west by superstitious barbarians steeped in a primitive worship of a bloody moon god.

Instead, western schools are creating graduates of neotenous incompetence, who are incompetent to defend the only civilisation that is even slightly enlightened--modern western civilisation. Neoteny is the rot at the core of the impending decline and fall of the west.

The only thing government schools accomplish now is the mass production of superfluous incompetents.