Iran: Brain Drain, Drug Addiction, Capital Flight, . . .

In ... the latest available data, Iran was losing more than 150,000 of its educated and skilled citizens annually, according to the IMF. – Reuters _Iran Unemployment and Brain Drain

...heroin use is now at a global high in Afghanistan and Iran, where opium and poppies are grown, while it has dropped in Western Europe. _Drug Use Spiking

Educated young people and professionals are getting out whenever they can:

Following the controversial 2009 presidential elections, a wave Iranians left the country because of the widespread government crackdown on protesters.

Meanwhile, the brain drain has been a longstanding issue facing the country as many students leave Iran to continue their studies and often end up settling abroad and not returning to Iran. _EurasiaReview

The Iranian government is attempting to put a brave face on a developing disaster:

Oil production has shrunk to 800,000 barrels a day, a level not seen since the 1980s, during the war with Iraq (who bombed Iranian oil fields and tankers). Inflation is making items like meat, medicine, and imported goods too expensive for most Iranians. Inflation is out of control and the value of the rial (Iranian currency) against the dollar and other foreign currency continues to decline. It costs nearly three times as much to buy dollars with rials versus a year ago. Even with more currency being printed, the government cannot get everyone paid on time. _Economic Collapse

As the defiant Iranian government rushes ahead in an attempt to develop nuclear weapons, the tactics taken by nations opposed to a nuclear Iran continue to evolve:

Iran recently reported that security troops outside a new underground nuclear enrichment plant went to investigate a suspicious looking rock and the rock exploded. Later investigation revealed that the rock was, indeed, not a real rock but an electronic device that was apparently monitoring activity around the nuclear facility (that enriched uranium sufficiently for use in a bomb) and transmitting it, via satellite, back to somewhere. The rock was also rigged to self-destruct if anyone got close.

The usual suspects for such a ploy were the Americans (who have been using the fake rocks thing for decades) and the Israelis (who also use fake rocks, and use them quite a lot in Lebanon). The Iranians are not only upset with the exploding rocks, but also with how someone was blowing up electrical transmission towers and cutting off electricity of the underground nuclear facility. This happened twice last month. On top of all these explosions, Iran is also alarmed at the unending attacks by Cyber War weapons. _Smart Exploding Rocks

Iran's military is being forced to contract maintenance work on advanced imported weapons systems with local contractors, in an attempt to save money and to maintain control of the systems within Iran. But that may mean that formerly sophisticated systems are losing some of their sophistication, stealth, and reliability:

Iran recently put one of its three Kilo class submarines back into service after a period of refurbishment by an Iranian shipyard. Russia insists that refurbishment and upgrades of its Kilo class subs be done in Russian shipyards. But the Iranians believed the Russians were charging too much and feared the Russians would not return the sub.

So the Iranians did it themselves, even though the Russians would not provide the technical data normally needed for such an upgrade. According to the Iranian press release, Iranian technicians fabricated replacement parts for internal (pumps, compressors, engines, and the like) and external (sound absorbent tiles, control surfaces) components and installed them. While some of the technology needed here (pneumatic, engines, electronics) is pretty common stuff, other items are not. So it's unknown how adequate the Iranian replacement parts were.

...The new Iranian components have probably made these boats louder and easier to find. U.S. and allied anti-submarine forces will be keen to play with the refurbished Kilo when it ventures out into international waters (which it may avoid doing to prevent anyone from "hearing" how this Kilo has changed). _Klunkification of Kilo Submarines

Iran is paying a high price for its determination to build and maintain its own nuclear weapons arsenal. More specifically, the people of Iran are paying a high price for the determination of Iran's wealthy religious and secular elite to possess a nuclear weapons threat.

The ongoing covert war against Iran may serve as a test case for the future treatment of militant powers which wish to wield massively destructive weapons systems. Certainly no modern nation can afford very many military actions along the line of the 2003 US invasion and occupation of Iraq.

A Global Decline; A US Choice

China's banking system is a mess. And it is not reassuring to foreign observers that China's super-rich are exiting the country in record numbers.

If China continues to scale down its importation of commodities, a large part of the support for inflated oil prices will be removed. Should that happen, the main thing holding up oil prices would be continued fears over a war between Iran and Israel.

But it is more likely that Israel will wait and see what is likely to happen in Syria, before it pulls the trigger on an all-out attack against Iran's nuclear bomb-making facilities. Much of the Arab and Muslim worlds appear to be self-destructing, and no one knows how things will look if the dust finally settles.

Iran is being held together by bubble gum and baling wire, with a bit of duct tape around the edges for appearance' sake. Without the support of Russia and China, the main axis of Islamic terror -- Syria and Iran -- would collapse. Should that happen, dismantling Saudi support for global Islamic terrorism should be relatively easy, using modern tools of information warfare.

But the relationship between Russia and China is beginning to show signs of strain, as China increasingly eyes the resource riches of Eastern Siberia -- while the population of Russia shrinks and Russia's military decays.

Things could go very badly wrong if the leaders of China and Russia react irrationally to the changes in fortune which seem to be approaching for both nations.

Someone needs to tell Putin that Russia is not Stalinist USSR any longer. And someone needs to tell China's leaders that the current state of politico-economic limbo is unsustainable.

Europe is heading into recession. Unless Germany retreats from its insane Energiewende policy, Europe is headed into catastrophe.

And finally, the US faces a choice in November between a chic stasis and a staid dynamism. If the US makes the dynamic choice, the rest of the world is likely to fall in line. If the US chooses stasis, the resulting power vacuum will likely lead to dire global consequences, as already bad choices grow worse.

Iran's Insurgency Begins to Heat Up

The world has been watching the Syrian dictatorship fighting off an insurgency made up of army defectors and disaffected citizens, with Turkey warning Syria to stop murdering its civilians. And now, an insurgency movement inside Iran is apparently beginning to heat up.

Iran's insurgency is likely to have much larger global repercussions, because Iran's mullahcracy has been the center of so much regional discord and killing over the past 32 years -- from Gaza to Lebanon to Iraq to Saudi Arabia. Overthrowing the backward and bloody theocracy of Iran would be a significant step forward to world harmony, and the dismantling of the Russia - Iran - North Korea - Cuba - Venezuela axis of global destabilisation.

What we are beginning to see in Iran, is an upsurge in explosions targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, and its Iranian Revolutionary Guard in-house instrument of terror and murder. If the Iranian insurgency is able to reach into the heart of the Iranian government's terror apparatus, it is apparently serious about changing the established order.

These attacks on the Guards — the symbol of the regime’s intensifying repression and slaughter of the Iranian people — are part of a pattern that includes explosions at refineries and pipelines. At the same time, strikes have been spreading (and no wonder; up to 30,000 retired teachers have been waiting for their pensions for many months). In short, people have lost patience, and the smaller of the two explosions at the RG base was aimed at Major General Hasan Tehrani Moghaddam, one of the most brutal of the country’s military leaders.

Contrary to the inevitable suspicions of the thumb-suckers (the Americans did it! no, the Israelis did it! no, it was an accident!), the operation was planned and carried out by Iranians from the opposition-that-does-not-exist. They intended to demonstrate that no leader is safe from the people’s wrath (if that base can be penetrated, any place can, and if that man can be assassinated, anyone can), and that the opposition knows its gravediggers.

The second, larger, explosion was not planned, nor was the extremely high number of casualties (I am told that hundreds of people, including some “very important foreign dignitaries,” were blown up). That second blast was apparently from a quantity of liquid fuel designed to extend the speed and accuracy of Iran’s Shahab-3 missile, the one the mullahs hope will some day carry a nuclear warhead. My sources claim that the fuel caused the big white plume seen in the photographs. The cloud may well have caused respiratory problems for the survivors.

There is another, fascinating report, that right after the explosions, the two main Green Movement leaders, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, were taken from house arrest, leaving their wives behind. This bespeaks a high level of anxiety within the regime, suggesting that they feared an all-out assault was under way, and under those circumstances they would take vengeance on the two Green leaders. Whether or not the rumor is true, its existence suggests that Khamenei et. al. take a more serious view of the opposition than some of our own expert analysts.

What this all means is clear enough....it was only a matter of time until the opposition abandoned its commitment to non-violence. We are now in a new phase. A French analyst, Jean-Jacques Guillet, understands the situation very well, and has called for a Western policy to intensify the pressure on the Iranian regime in order to bring it down. “If we press the regime strongly,” he said, “there could be an implosion. The real objective these days should be the regime’s implosion, not more talk.”

Instead, we have leaders [Dumbama etc.] who still believe in the talking cure, and who seem not even to know what the Iranian opposition wants, even when it’s delivered to them in black and white. As it was, at the height of the turmoil in 2009. _PJMedia

Bombing Iran Into an Islamic Stone Age -- Who'd Know the Diffierence?

Iran has threatened to destroy America, and has been frantically working to develop the type of nuclear missile technology which could throw the US back into a pre-industrial age. Both Iran and North Korea understand how easy it would be to detonate a nuclear warhead hundreds of miles above the US -- in outer space -- then sit back and watch American society implode. Both rogue nations are working to develop both the nuclear and the missil technology to achieve that feat.

But the irascible Spengler says that the US should not wait for Iran to collapse its electrical infrastructure. No, Spengler says the US should pre-empt Iranian plans, and do whatever is necessary to prevent the mad mullahs from making that one, last, fatal gesture:

Iran has terrorized the United States, and inevitably will acquire nuclear weapons — unless it’s stopped. At that point its terror capacity will multiply a thousand-fold, because its terrorists will operate under a nuclear umbrella. So the argument boils down to this: Iran is a terrorist state ready to murder American citizens and American allies all over the Middle East and around the world. Which means that we had better not stop them from acquiring nuclear weapons, because then they might be mad at us, and hurt us. What does that imply about what a nuclear-armed Iran might do?

... keep in mind that Iran is a dying nation. As I report in How Civilizations Die (and Why Islam is Dying, Too), Iran is suffering the fastest fertility decline on record, any time, ever. The average Iranian has six or seven brothers and sisters, but will have one or two children. The population pyramid will invert: within a single generation, it will go from having 7 children to take care of elderly parents, to just 1.5. And in a country where the average person has $4000 to spend per year, that means starvation. The Iranian leadership knows it. They’ve been screaming about it in public for years. Like Hitler, they think they have one last chance at empire before the curtain comes down. If they’re not stopped, millions of Americans might die. _PJMedia

Rather than decapitation strikes against Iran's leaders, or deep penetration bombing strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, some have suggested that the US should use EMP on Iran, to throw the nation back into an "Islamic stone age." Yes, "Islamic stone age" is a redundant phrase, granted. And it is possible that no one would even notice the difference.

But Iran's international terrorist proclivities are enabled by its energy wealth, and knocking out the ability of Iran to get its energy to market would certainly cut the legs out from under the ability of Iran to export terror and mayhem.

But if the more enlightened world were to use EMP against Iran, it would be better not to use a nuclear variety of EMP weapon, but rather one of the more advanced conventional EMP weapons. Such weapons could be mass produced, pre-placed, and timed to knock out selected electrical and electronic infrastructure. Alternatively, they could be unleashed from cruise missiles or drone aircraft.

When combined with advanced energy beam weapons, such an attack could effectively "decapitate" the mad mullahs' ability to commit mischief abroad.

Oil prices would naturally shoot up, which would upset the already-shaky economies of Europe. Iranian allies such as Russia, China, North Korea, Syria, Gaza, and Venezuela would likewise be upset at the loss of revenues and the loss of a useful cat's paw.

But if the possible EMP threat from Iran is to be taken seriously, one must weigh all the options for a possible response.

Once the EMP djinn is let out of the bottle, there is no telling where it might stop. We like to assume that advanced societies could rebuild their infrastructures within a year or two, but that is assuming that somewhere in the world an advanced infrastructure willing and able to supply their replacement transformers and other massively expensive replacement infrastructure, has survived attack. That is an unlikely bet, once the dogs of EMP war are unleashed.

Stuxnet the Leading Edge of Sophisticated Espionage and Sabotage

Natanz Nuclear Enrichment Defense Iran Stuxnet appears to have been developed in the US and refined in Israel, before being introduced into Iranian computers by shadowy import-export companies. More from Wired:

In August 2009, Iran agreed to let the IAEA install surveillance cameras outside the enrichment facility to monitor any equipment that moved in or out. Suddenly, over a six-month period beginning late 2009, U.N. officials monitoring the surveillance images “watched in amazement” as Iranian workers “dismantled more than 10 percent of the plant’s 9,000 centrifuge machines used to enrich uranium,” according to the Washington Post. “Then, just as remarkably, hundreds of new machines arrived at the plant to replace the ones that were lost.”

Investigators described the effort as a feverish attempt to contain damage and replace broken parts, suggesting the centrifuges had indeed been operational when they broke.

“That it was 1,000 centrifuges and that it happened over a short period of time and the Iranians were upset about it” indicates the centrifuges were spinning or under vacuum – a preparation stage – when they broke, says Albright. “Because of the surprise and rapidity of all this happening, it indicates this.”

One other piece of information suggests Iran’s nuclear program was the target of Natanz. Last week security firm Symantec released a report revealing that the Stuxnet attack targeted five organizations in Iran that were infected first in an effort to spread the malware to Natanz.

Because Natanz’s PLCs are not connected to the internet, the best hope of attacking them – short of planting a mole inside Natanz – was infecting other computers that could serve as a gateway to the Natanz PLC. For example, infecting computers belonging to a contractor in charge of installing software at Natanz could help get the malware onto the Natanz system.

Symantec said the companies were hit in attacks in June and July 2009 and in March, April and May 2010. Symantec didn’t name the five organizations but said that they all “have a presence in Iran” and are involved in industrial processes.

Albright managed to glean from discussions with Symantec that some of the companies are involved in the acquisition and assembling of PLCs. What’s more, Symantec researchers told Albright that they found the names of some of the companies on suspect entity lists – lists of firms and organizations suspected of violating non-proliferation agreements by procuring parts for Iran’s nuclear program. _Wired

No one will shed tears for the Iranian nuclear weapons program, nor for the international companies which are illegally aiding the Iranians. But this attack is just the tip of the iceberg, and a mere suggestion of the wave of more sophisticated forms of sabotage, espionage, and covert warfare which is on the way.

Targeted acts of sabotage disrupt, but the real pay-off comes from identifying the human and technical links in the chain of command. Observing who responds – and when – to worm-driven destruction helps illuminate who really runs Iran’s nuclear infrastructures. Real-world Iranian responses offer critical clues as to which scientists, administrators and engineers are trusted and who is suspect. The chance to monitor Iran’s response would be of great interest to Mossad, the International Atomic Energy Agency, America’s CIA and/or Britain’s GCHQ.

Crafting a worm that generates potential insight into all those issues represents an intelligence coup. It is as potentially revelatory as a WikiLeaks data dump. That is why interpreting Stuxnet as desperate stop-gap or one-off intervention almost certainly misunderstands its purpose. Sabotage here is a means to an end; it is a gambit to make Iran’s nuclear processes more transparent.

Iran’s nuclear elite and Ministry of Intelligence know this. It is no secret now to the mullahs that their responses to the Stuxnet breach were closely monitored by external intelligence agencies. Their internal security is furiously trying to assess what information might have inadvertently been revealed. _FT

Stuxnet's sophistication is considered to be unprecedented. But from now on, Stuxnet will be the benchmark against which future spyware and malware will be gauged.

Mr Salem [of Symantec] said new technology and new approaches are needed.

"I run the largest security company in the world. I get up and people say I have a vested interest (in pushing this line). But my job is to protect and provide security and when we say critical infrastructure is under attack, it is real."

Mr Salem mapped out a number of strategic steps that need to be taken to guard against the next major cyber attack. They include an early warning system, better intelligence on what attacks could happen, better protection, the ability to anticipate what any threat could look like and the ability to clean up after an attack.

He also pointed to a role for government that might involve a counter attack or strike.

The idea of a kill switch to allow the government to switch off the internet if it is under attack is one he did not seem overly enthusiastic about.

"The ability for us to turn something off like that and not cause other massive disruption would be very hard. We are becoming more and more dependent on the internet. There are better approaches than trying to shut off the internet. _BBC

This growing dependency on the internet can be seen at all levels of every society in the advanced world. It represents a growing vulnerability -- given the revelation of what malware like Stuxnet can do -- and needs to be addressed now, before societies move to depend upon an even more vulnerable "smart grid" power system.

The threat is real, and the threat is now.

More than 100 foreign intelligence agencies have tried to breach United States defence networks, largely to steal military plans and weapons systems designs, a top Pentagon official said. _NZHerald

Consequently, the US Pentagon is seeking half a billion US dollars to develop new cyber technologies -- including powerful new defenses to guard agains the powerful new cyber-attack threats.

The $500 million is part of the Pentagon’s 2012 budget request of $2.3 billion to improve the Defense Department’s cyber capabilities. At a Pentagon news conference yesterday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates called the research money, to be spent through the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or Darpa, “big investment dollars, looking to the future.”

The military is reaching out to commercial companies for the latest technologies and technical experts to safeguard the Pentagon’s computer networks from attacks and espionage, Lynn said. The effort is part of a “comprehensive cyber strategy called Cyber 3.0,” he said. _Bloomberg

The djinn is long out of the bottle, wreaking havoc on uranium enrichment centrifuge cyber systems. Similar djinns will soon fly out, based upon similar advanced cyber technology, with wider mission profiles and less selective targeting.

But regular readers of Al Fin blogs will understand that this cyber threat -- for all its potential for disruption and destruction -- is only the visible and more imaginable problem. More creative and malicious destructors are on the way, as advanced sciences and technology merge with unimaginably sophisticated hardware and software.

This is the start of the long war, which may either result in humans sinking to a pre-technological level for hundreds or thousands of years, or in humans transcending their monkey natures on the way to the wide-open next level. Watch and see.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

The Iranian Bomb: A Question of When

With a new, radical Islam-friendly US President in office, there is no longer a need to pretend that Iran has forsaken its nuclear weapons program. The Obama administration is fine with a nuclear Iran, which leaves only tiny Israel to decide whether to make its objections clear beyond the shadow of a doubt.

Iran reports having thousands of centrifuges spinning away to make fuel for their upcoming power reactors. Others think that Iran has it in mind to make weapons material using those same centrifuges. In fact, Iran could divert just 1% of its centrifuge production and have enough weapons-grade material to make a few bombs per year.

...A standard power reactor that generates electricity requires about 20 tons of uranium a year, utilizing uranium with about 4.5% U235 content. A centrifuge facility intended for this civilian use would be spinning thousands of centrifuges to do 106,000 SWUs each year. Diverting a bit of that 4.5% U235 and adding just 1,300 SWUs of additional effort would yield 20 kilograms of 94% U235. If this were to be done on the sly, about 1% of the total centrifuge work would have to be falsely labeled or otherwise disguised. Diligent inspectors might catch this, or they might not. _ThreatMatrix

The article above provides more technical information on using centrifuges to enrich uranium for various uses. More information can be found at Wikipedia.

A large number of western pundits -- oriented more toward appeasement than reality -- have trumpeted the "peaceful Iran" message, based upon an eroneous CIA "threat assessment" from 2007. But that message was either hopelessly naive or intentionally misleading. The chumps in academia, media, and the political sphere who fell for that line have conveniently moved on to other things.

Meanwhile, Iran just keeps on keeping on. SWU after SWU after SWU, the uranium 235 just keeps getting richer. (a SWU is a "separative work unit", or one batch around the centrifuge) With Obama as US president, Iran has nothing to fear from the great Satan.

Iran Suffers a String of Explosive Setbacks

Iran is the main fomenter of terrorism in the middle east. The monkey Ahmedinejad and the mad mullahs supports terrorism in Iraq, Lebanon, Israel, Gaza, and various other parts of the middle east, including Saudi Arabia. It is only fitting and proper that Iran itself be increasingly targeted for sabotage and the old boom-boom.

The explosion took place in the Tehran suburb of Khavarshahar as the military convoy left a munitions' warehouse controlled by the Revolutionary Guards. According to reports received by Western officials, the convoy was taking a consignment of military equipment to Hizbollah, the Shia Muslim militia Iran supports in southern Lebanon, when the explosion occurred.

Senior Revolutionary Guard commanders immediately imposed a news black-out following the explosion, even though it could be heard throughout the capital Tehran, and no details of the incident have so far appeared in the Iranian media.

...The Revolutionary Guards' investigation into last weekend's explosion is understood to be looking into the possibility that it was caused by sabotage. Iran has suffered a number of unexplained explosions in recent months, including an explosion at a mosque in Shiraz, which had been holding a military exhibition, and another incident at a missile site that killed dozens of Iranian technicians. _Telegraph

Of course, it couldn't happen to a nicer terror state. Here's hoping for more of the same.

Iran and Iraq: Perpetually at War?

Iranian Revolutionary mischief-makers have been busy in Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq. Ahmedinejad, silly monkey, has assumed that he can do as he pleases without suffering any adverse consequences. But something has happened to his dysfunctional Iraqi neighbor while Mahmoud was attempting to destabilize the entire middle eastern region: it started to learn how to take care of itself without a dictator's help.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/06/iraqi_army_interdict.php

Coalition forces captured four Mahdi Army fighters, including a “an individual suspected of smuggling Iranian weapons and coordinating Special Groups training in Iran” and “training others in sniper tactics and acting as a key conduit between Special Groups leaders in the western Baghdad area” during a raid in the Kadhamiyah district on June 1.

Iraqi Special Operations Forces captured a Special Groups operative behind rocket and mortar attacks along with another Mahdi Army fighter on May 31. The same day, US troops captured five Mahdi army fighters in separate actions in West Rashid, East Rashid, Mansour, and Adhamiyah. One of the men was behind EFP attacks, another was a weapons smuggler, facilitator and improvised explosive device maker, and another was responsible for conducting ethnic cleansing and weapons smuggling. __Roggio

Iraq and Iran have gone to war since long before they were called by those names. Iran is a dictatorship of the apocalyptic, Iraq is a nascent democracy of sorts. Habits of modernism have rubbed off, slightly, onto Iraqi units and work groups who have observed the coalition troops and contractors closely.

Traditionally corrupt and ultra-tribal methods of operation are likely to persist for many generations in Arab and Kurdish Iraq. But modernity has a way of creeping in and transforming a society. If Iran's Ahmedinejad persists in his religious apocalyptic mischief-making beyond a certain point, he and his country are doomed.

The US under President Carter allowed the current obscene Iranian regime to gain a foothold and consolidate power. The US under a President Obama would no doubt wink and nod as Iran obtained a nuclear weapons influence in the region.

Anyone with eyes can read those tea leaves. The monkey of Iran is hoping with all his heart for an Obama victory (along with Chavez, Ortega, Putin, the CCP etc), but the monkey persists in his mischief-making. Unrest in the middle east causes US voters to look toward a steadier hand, internationally and militarily. Obama's hand is the hand of a flake, a twit. Nothing could be unsteadier.

Throwing Barbie From the Plane: BarbieBomb Iran

Iran clearly needs to be bombed. The question is: is it better to bomb Iran with bombs, or with Barbies? Greg Beato thinks Barbies are the appropriate choice.

Iran is terrified of Barbie, the tiny polyvinyl sex bomb who loves shopping, pizza, and brushing her hair, but has few satellite-guided missiles at her disposal. According to Iran's Prosecutor General, Ghorban Ali Dori Najfabadi, a loosely organized coalition, led by the world's most impeccably accessorized mercenary but also including additional combatants like Harry Potter and Spider-man, is doing "irreparable damage" to Iranian children. "The irregular importation of such toys, which unfortunately arrive through unofficial sources and smuggling, is destructive culturally and a social danger," Najafabadi cautioned...the Barbies who show up in Tehran shop windows are smuggled into the country, the victims of international doll trafficking. Once there, however, they make the best of it, embodying the traditional American values of self-determination and haircare...If Barbie's marginal and haphazard presence in Iran is so disruptive, what kind of impact might she have there if a more orchestrated effort to put additional sexy white boots on the ground was implemented? Luckily, the relative economy of a Barbie surge—an army of 200,000 cheerleaders for Western decadence can be mustered for the price of a dozen Tomahawk missiles... __Reason

Beato may not be the brightest bulb in the box, but perhaps he has a point to make about cultural subversion. Not that a few hundred thousand Barbie dolls would actually do the trick of overturning a millenia-old culture of primitive tribalism and religious barbarism. But think it through to the core idea, and play with it.

Culture is passed along from generation to generation--unless something happens in between generations. Say, a music revolution called rock and roll that puts rebellion on the front burner, combined with a drug and anti-war revolution among the young. You might think that nothing would ever be the same again.

Children like to fantasize. And they like to have secrets from others. Some parents like to indulge their children in these fantasies. Childhood and adolescence are such confusing times, unless something happens to stir things up it is often easier just to go along with tradition.

What about a talking doll that said things the ayatollahs wouldn't want young girls listening to? What if a talking doll was also a radio and a tutorial device? Solar powered so its batteries won't run down? What if it could teach children catchy songs with infectious lyrics? These things require a bit of thought.

Oppressive cultures have to keep the lid on tight. But then the pressure tends to build at the slightest incident. Bomb Iran? With Barbies? Or something even more devilishly clever.

Iran Declares War on Iraq

Not officially, not yet. But Iranian forces were fighting at command level with Shia militias inside Basra recently. It is safe to say that Iran is the greatest threat to peace in Iraq at this time.

Military and intelligence sources believe Iranians were operating at a tactical command level with the Shi’ite militias fighting Iraqi security forces; some were directing operations on the ground, they think. ___Times

The current US Democratic Party controlled congress has invested deeply in the defeat of the young democratic government in Iraq. You can expect DP hacks such as Pelosi and Reid to resist the fact of direct Iranian government involvement in the killing of Iraqi civilians, Iraqi security forces, and US forces inside Iraq. But then, Pelosi has always been a minor league thinker, and Reid not much better if any.

The real question is how the surrender branch of the Democratic party (is it really only a branch?) will persuade American voters that they can both retreat in the face of a direct military confrontation with Iran -- of all countries -- and nevertheless be relied upon to defend and assert the national interest of the United States. __TigerHawk

The US government is divided between those who are working for a safer world, and those who shirk from any conflict that may advance US interests in any way.

The geopolitical world is not a nice place, on the whole. Nice guys don't make it to the top, as a rule. Crocodiles and pigs predominate. If your leaders are not reptilian crocodiles, like Putin and Hu Jintao, they may be pigs, like Pelosi.

Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew--Bomb, Bomb, Bomb .... Bomb Bomb Iran

Actually, no, he does not actually come right out and say that Iran should be bombed. But if you can read between the lines... Lee is subtle, and often speaks in his silences.

Q: Which raises the question of the United States or Israel bombing Iran's nuclear facilities.

A: (long silent pause) … I can express no views on that.

Q: The Israelis say they are facing an existential crisis.

A: No question, they are at risk.

...Q: But in the Gulf, if the U.S. and/or Israel bombed Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran has formidable asymmetrical retaliatory capabilities?

A: But let me repeat, they cannot conquer you. Hezbollah cannot conquer Lebanon. They can create trouble for the non-Hezbollah Lebanese. So micro actors can cause a lot of trouble for your friends, but they can't eradicate them.____UPI

What Lee is saying, is that yes, Israel is at deadly risk from Iranian nuclear weapons. If it were his decision to make [for Israel] he would seriously consider bombing Iran [but not invading]. He would expect retaliation and significant losses. But at the end of the day, he appears to say that the need to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons ability exceeds the risks of retaliation.

The price of oil would shoot through the roof--probably over US $200 a barrel, temporarily. There would be significant economic short term difficulties in the US, Europe, and the rest of the west. Russia and China would be upset, but not enough to retaliate in the open. Behind closed doors is another matter.

The Islamic world would outwardly condemn Israel and the US, while inwardly the Sunni world and moderate Shias would be relieved to not have to face their own nuclear Islamic Civil War.

Iran is only 50% ethnic Persian, and most of them are very unhappy with the leadership of their country. If the west waited long enough, perhaps the leadership would be overthrown anyway. But then, you could have said the same about Hitler in 1930s Germany.

These decisions have serious consequences, either way. Acting, or not acting.

Regional Nuclear War--If So, When?

Thanks to Iran, North Korea, China, and Pakistan's infamous Dr. Khan, nuclear proliferation is a fact of modern life. Israel's famous bombing of Iraq's Osirik reactor, and its more recent bombing of a Syrian/North Korean collaborative reactor, bring the issue into focus. While Iran appears to be pushing US President Bush into a confrontation over its own nuclear proliferation program, some people think that Pakistan is the greater danger:

There was George Bush's Oct. 17 warning that "if you're interested in avoiding World War III," you ought to worry about the prospect of Iranian nukes. ... Then, a few days after Bush's Oct. 17 shocker, I came upon a less widely noticed, perhaps even more ominous quote, originally published two weeks earlier in London's usually reliable Spectator, in a story about the Sept. 6 Israeli raid on that alleged Syrian nuclear facility. A quote from a "very senior British ministerial source" contending, "[I]f people had known how close we came to world war three that day there'd have been mass panic."

...And now we have the crisis in Pakistan, one that portends a nightmare scenario in which Pakistan's so-called "Islamic bomb" falls into the hands of al-Qaida sympathizers. Such an outcome would put us on a fast-track route to World War III....Finally, there was the almost unprecedented declassification of an element of the U.S. nuclear war plan formerly known as the Strategic Integrated Operating Plan, now called OPLAN 8044...Soon, if not already, one can be sure, there will be "robust contingency plans" for Pakistan, as Martin Walker put it recently in the New York Times.

...Now, there are at least eight nuclear nations and who knows how many "nonstate actors," as the euphemism for terrorist groups goes. And some of these nonstate actors have adopted an ideology of suicidal martyrdom, even when it comes to nukes, and thus can't be deterred by the reciprocal threat of death.

...I'm surprised there isn't a greater sense of concern about those Pakistani nukes. Forget Iran and Israel (Bush's hypothetical route to World War III). Pakistani nukes now represent the quickest shortcut to a regional nuclear war that could escalate to a global nuclear war.

Slate

Despite whatever Al Gore may say, climate change will probably not be the trigger for nuclear war. But a nuclear war may very well usher in the next significant climate change. All that dust circulating around the atmosphere will promote a "global dimming" that will not be good for the world's crops.

Nuclear weapons technology is a cat that is long out of the bag. If Pakistani, Iranian, and North Korean scientists have the technology, then anyone with political, religious, or financial connections to these scientists or their particular agencies can have the technology as well. Think about it. And make your plans accordingly.

Inside Iran's House of Cards

Iran is the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism, with only North Korea and Venezuela jostling for future position. Michael Totten goes to the Kurdish border with Iran, looks across, and contemplates walking across undetected to conduct more interviews with Iranians. Here is is report on the Iranian mullahs' house of cards, from Kurdistan.

I’ve stood on the border myself and contemplated walking undetected into Iran. Komala leaders even offered to take me across and embed me themselves. “We can get you inside Iran and leave you for weeks, if you want, among our supporters and among our people,” Mohtadi said. “It is very easy.”

If I were caught in Iran without a visa or an entry stamp in my passport, I would almost surely be jailed as a spy. Tempting as the offer was, I had to pass. Anyway, I could speak to Iranian dissidents, if not necessarily ordinary Iranians, in the Komala camp just as easily as I could have inside Iran. As it happened, a famous Persian writer and dissident had arrived there just before I did.

Kianoosh Sanjari is a member of the United Student Front in Tehran. At 23, he has been imprisoned and tortured many times. His last arrest was on October 7, 2006, after he wrote about clashes between the Revolutionary Guards and supporters of the liberal cleric Hossein Kazemeyni Boroujerdi. Charged with “acting against state security” and “propaganda against the system,” he was released on $100,000 bail last December. Some months later, he fled to Iraq and moved to the Komala camp.

Unlike most Iranian visitors who use Komala as a safe house, Sanjari didn’t bother remaining anonymous. He told me his real name and said I could publish his picture. If you can read Farsi, you can read his blog at ks61.blogspot.com. “I’m just now coming out of Iran,” he said. “It’s a hell there. I know the sufferings. I am inclined to accept any tactic that helps overthrow this regime.”

“Does that include an American invasion of Iran?” I asked.

“Maybe intellectuals who just talk about things are not in favor of that kind of military attack,” he said. “But I have spoken to people in taxis, in public places. They are praying for an external outside power to do something for them and get rid of the mullahs. Personally, it’s not acceptable for me if the United States crosses the Iranian border. I like the independence of Iran and respect the independence of my country. But my generation doesn’t care about this.”

...Everyone I met at the Komala compound said the Iranian regime itself wallows deep in the post-ideological torpor that inevitably follows radical revolutions. Except for the most fanatic officials, the government cares only about money and power. “Followers of the regime are not ideological anymore,” Sanjari said. “They are bribed by the government. They will no longer support it in the case that it is overthrown. Even among the Iranian military and Revolutionary Guards, there are so many people dissatisfied with the policies of the regime. Fortunately there aren’t religious conflicts between Shias, Sunnis, and different nationalities.”

Mohtadi concurred. “The next revolution and government will be explicitly anti-religious,” he said.

The Iranian writer Reza Zarabi says the regime has all but destroyed religion itself. “The name Iran, which used to be equated with such things as luxury, fine wine, and the arts, has become synonymous with terrorism,” he wrote. “When the Islamic Republic government of Iran finally meets its demise, they will have many symbols and slogans as testaments of their rule, yet the most profound will be their genocide of Islam, the black stain that they have put on this faith for many generations to come.”

...If the Islamic Republic is overthrown, almost anything might happen. Iran could become a modern liberal democracy, as most Eastern European states did after the fall of the Soviet Empire. It could revert to a milder form of authoritarian rule, as Russia has. It could, like Iraq, face chronic instability and insurgent attacks. Or its various “nationalities” could tear the country to pieces and go the way of the Yugoslavs. Optimists like Sanjari and Mohtadi may have a better sense of what to expect than those of us in the West, but still they do not know.

The only thing that seems likely is that a showdown of some kind is coming, either between factions in Iran or between Iran and the rest of the world. Predictions of the regime’s imminent demise have been staples of Iranian expat and activist discourse for years, so it’s hard to take the latest predictions seriously. But authoritarian regimes increasingly seem to have limited shelf lives. As Francis Fukuyama’s flawed but compelling book The End of History points out, there has been a worldwide explosion of liberal democracies since the 18th century, from three in 1790 to 36 in 1960 to 61 in 1990. (In 2006 Freedom House classified 148 nations as free or partly free.) History isn’t over and never will be, but it hasn’t been kind to dictatorships lately.

Reason

It is instructive to read Totten's article in full. Totten, Michael Yon, Bill Roggio, and other independent observers have risked their lives to report from the front lines of islamist terror and tyranny. It is high time that westerners begin to listen.

Axis of Dumkopfs

Assad and Ahmedinejad have been very bad boys. Bad enough to be spanked. The problem is, they are not likely to learn anything from even a very harsh spanking. Their problems go much deeper.

Proof of cooperation between Iran and Syria in the proliferation and development of weapons of mass destruction was brought to light Monday in a Jane's Defence Weekly report that dozens of Iranian engineers and 15 Syrian officers were killed in a July 23 accident in Syria.

According to the report, cited by Channel 10, the joint Syrian-Iranian team was attempting to mount a chemical warhead on a Scud missile when the explosion occurred, spreading lethal chemical agents, including sarin nerve gas.

Reports of the accident were circulated at the time; however, no details were released by the Syrian government, and there were no hints of an Iranian connection.

The report comes on the heels of criticism leveled by the Syrians at the United States, accusing it of spreading "false" claims of Syrian nuclear activity and cooperation with North Korea to excuse an alleged Israeli air incursion over the country this month.

SOURCE

These bad boys will never learn, even if the entire world tells them to behave. They will require another type of solution entirely, before their bad behaviour will end.

Iran and the US Congress Digging Deep Holes for Themselves

It's clear that some people know just enough to acquire power, but not enough to do anything constructive with it. The US Democratic Congress shares that characteristic with the mad mullahs and mad dog president Ahmedinejad of Iran.

The Revolutionary Guards, or at least the al Quds force (which specialize in supporting pro-Iranian terrorists in foreign countries) is having a hard time in Iraq. With the collapse of al Qaeda in Iraq (because the Sunni Arabs turned on them), U.S. troops are now concentrating on Iranian supported groups. Coalition commando forces are specifically looking to capture as many al Quds operatives as they can. As a result of this, Iran has been pulling its al Quds people out of Iraq. Those that have been captured so far have given up embarrassing and damaging information.

In northern Iran, the war against the Kurds is not going well. Before 2003, Iran was supporting pro-al Qaeda Kurdish groups by providing sanctuary inside Iran, as well as weapons and supplies. These Islamic radicals took control of some villages inside Iraq, but were destroyed by Kurdish militiamen and American Special Forces. Then Kurdish separatists groups began sneaking into Iran and recruiting Iranian Kurds who were willing to fight. That problem has grown over the past four years, to the point that there are several thousand Revolutionary Guard troops, including artillery and some armored vehicles, operating along the Iraq border. The Iranian artillery fires shells at Kurdish villages in Iraq, and Revolutionary Guard patrols often cross the border. But the Iranians know they cannot get too aggressive. The Kurdish militias can handle Revolutionary Guard patrols, and the Iranians have suffered dozens of casualties in these clashes over the Summer. The Iranians also know that if they put too many people into Iraq, they will have to deal with American smart bombs. While some Revolutionary Guard commanders say otherwise, most Iranian military leaders don't want to fight U.S. troops, especially not in largely Kurdish areas along the Iraq border. Most of those Kurds would welcome an American invasion, and the Iranian generals don't want to invite one. Even with that restraint, the fighting over the last few months has left over 200 dead, and many more wounded.

In the southwestern province of Khuzestan, police executed three Iranian Arabs, who were accused of terrorist bombings inside Iran. The Iranian Arabs are despised by ethnic Iranians (an Indo-Aryan group, related to Indians and Europeans), and the current generation of Iranian Arabs are fed up with the discrimination they suffer. Their fathers fought bravely for Iran when Iran invaded in the 1980s, and all the government gave in return was more abuse. There's more anger than organization and violence. British agents are widely believed to be helping to organize armed resistance, but there's no proof. Those rumors have been an Iranian staple for over a century. But there are a lot of unhappy Arabs in Khuzestan, and there is some violence.

In the southeast, there's a lot of violence, and several hundred casualties a year. But it's more crime-wave than war. It's all about drugs. Iran is a prime market, and transit route, for heroin and opium from Afghanistan. Pushtun tribes in Afghanistan, and Baluchi tribes in Iran, are getting rich from this trade, and the police, reinforced by Revolutionary Guard units, are fighting a losing battle against the well armed and motivated (by huge amounts of cash) smugglers.

Strategy Page

The US Democratic Congress needs the Iranians to succeed in Iraq. That is their only hope to precipitate a disastrous US withdrawal soon--so as to wrap up this US defeat as Bush's Vietnam. That's what the US Democrats are praying for, for Christmas. An unequivocal US loss in Iraq.

As soon as the US public understands that that is the extent of the forward thinking of the US Democratic Party--a monumental defeat for the US military--the 2008 election will begin to gel.

War With Iran Not Improbable

The French foreign minister has publicly said what most intelligent observers have been thinking--Iran is placing itself almost irrevocably in the path of war with the west.

The world should "prepare for war" with Iran, the French foreign minister has said, significantly escalating tensions over the country's nuclear programme.

Bernard Kouchner said that while "we must negotiate right to the end" with Iran, if Teheran possessed an atomic weapon it would represent "a real danger for the whole world".

The world should "prepare for the worst... which is war", he said.

...Amid unconfirmed reports that the US is drawing up plans to attack Iran's nuclear installations, Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, said that diplomacy remained the administration's preferred approach.

Asked if President George W Bush would consult Congress before launching any strikes on Iran, Mr Gates said he would not be drawn on "hypotheticals".

But he added: "We always say all options are on the table.

"But clearly, the diplomatic and economic approach is the one we're pursuing."

...A senior US nuclear official said that North Koreans advisers were in Syria and that Damascus might have had contacts with "secret suppliers" to obtain nuclear equipment.

Syria and North Korea have both denied allegations that some sort of joint nuclear project was the target for the Israeli precision airstrike 10 days ago.

Telegraph

Iran is playing a game for which it is not suited, beyond a certain point. It is easy to taunt a more powerful adversary when there is little chance of paying any consequences. Iran's mad mullahs and the apish Ahmedinejad have perhaps less taunting time left than they imagine.

George Patton On Iraq, and Learning From History

General George S. Patton speaks out on history's lessons, and how modern America should apply these lessons to the war on terror, Iraq, Iran, and Islamofascism. As you may recall, General Patton does not take kindly to "cut and run" types. So sit back and enjoy the General's commentary.

Iranian Forces Working in Iraq to Kill Iraqis and Others

Pundits and other morons tell us that Iran is not involved in Iraq. "There is no need to deal with Iran, because Iran is totally innocent. Who are you going to believe? Me the pundit, or your damned lying eyes?"

A top special operations officer from Lebanon's Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah has been captured in Iraq, where U.S. officials say he played a key role in a January attack that killed five Americans.

Ali Mussa Daqduq, an explosives expert, was captured in March in the southern Iraqi city of Basra, where he was helping train and lead Shiite militias fighting coalition troops, U.S. intelligence officials told CNN.

Daqduq pretended to be deaf and mute when captured, and his identity was not known for weeks, the officials said.

Once uncovered, however, they said he began to talk, and they now believe he played a crucial role in the January 20 attack in Karbala.

Source

Daqduq was captured in March, started talking in April, and has been singing like a canary ever since. He was captured with two other high level operatives working on Iran's payroll.

Iran is trying to do to Iraq what it is doing to Lebanon via Hezbollah, and doing to the Palestinians with Hamas. Imagine half the world patrolled by Hezbollah thugs and the other half patrolled by Al Qaida thugs. That is the world Caliphate, with a hudna between Sunni and Shia. Would you want to be caught in the crossfire between that two set of thugs? They do not use smart bombs to save civilians. They simply kill them all and let Allah sort them out.

Regime Change Iran

Iran is only 50% Persian. The rest is composed of Kurds, Armenians, Azerbaijans, Arabs, Turkmen, and other ethnicities. A lot of these non-Persian Iranians are feeling a bit left out of the revolution.

There are 12 million Kurds spread across four provinces in Northwestern Iran and another one million Kurds in a far-eastern province. Iran’s total population is estimated at more than 60 million.

As with Kurds in neighboring states, the Iranian Kurds have a series of discrimination complaints. He ticks them off. Kurds are deprived of education in their mother tongue and denied money for schools and roads, even though they pay heavy taxes to the central government, according to Mohtadi. Generally, Iran’s Kurdistan is run not by Kurds, but by people appointed by Tehran. Not a single police chief is a Kurd, he said. Indeed, none of the top jobs in the four Kurdish provinces are held by a Kurd. “It is a cultural occupation, a case of clear discrimination.”

....Still, support is growing among Kurds in Iran, he said. “A decade ago, it is very difficult to get cooperation. Now people complain that you don’t give them missions. Why am I not a member? they ask me.” You have to earn the right to be a voting party member, he explains.

“We have had 4,000 martyrs in past 28 years, now new recruits are strengthening the party.”

Azerbaijanis came late to liberation movement but their democratic management is growing fast. “This is one of the biggest political changes is that we have managed to win over the Shiite Kurds of southern [Iranian] Kurdistan,” he said.

The internal organization for leading and organizing clandestine staff has doubled twice in the past year, according to Abu Baker Modarrisi, who is a member of the collective that runs the clandestine service.

“We send people into Iran every day,” he tells me. “We sent an organizer yesterday to a Kurdish city to set up a cell.”

Source

While western leftists and other morons act as public apologists and doormats for the bloodthirsty Iranian dictatorship, it is the people of Iran, neighboring Iraq, and Lebanon who are suffering.

Eventually the butchers of Tehran will get their due. When they do, they will possibly be wondering about the paucity of virgins, and the sulfurous odours, in Paradise. Just kidding. But if you cannot joke about an idiotic group of people who hold idiotic beliefs, what can you joke about?

Iran Under Siege From Its Own People--Regime Change From the Ground Up

Iran's Islamic dictatorship is facing rapidly mounting problems that threaten its existence.

The Iranian clerics have much to fear, and not just from foreign threats. Their incompetence and corruption has ruined the economy. Unemployment among young Iranians is about 50 percent. Some 40 percent of the population is on the government payroll, and there is not enough oil money to pay off all the people who do support the government (about a third of the population). Thus the government keeps printing more money, and the result in an inflation rate of over 20 percent. The Iranian people are getting increasingly restless, and, more ominously, surly. The government has relied on street level gangs of young Islamic conservatives to discourage such behavior. But it isn't working, and there have been more and more street battles. The government can more readily call in reinforcements, and has won all these brawls so far. But if the government starts losing them, it's the beginning of the end. Some of the kids have cell phones, a technology the government tried to keep out.

...The clerics fear an event similar to the one that suddenly destroyed communist rule in Russia and Eastern Europe 18 years ago. For that reason, much attention and cash is spent on the street level muscle (the Basij militia), and a constant willingness to use physical violence against any protests or "un-Islamic" behavior. The universities are being purged of any staff suspected of being disloyal to the clergy. Any contacts with foreigners are being discouraged, as the Iranians fear U.S. groups that go around giving workshops on how to overthrow a dictatorship using non-violent means. Such workshops are held for Iranians across the Gulf, and many Iranians sneak over to participate.

Source

Iran is a hellish bastion of religious barbarism. How curious then, that so many leftist academics, journalists, and bloggers flock to the banner of Iran's theocratic tyranny.